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The UK General Election – Odds, Polls, and Predictions Show the Tory Lead Widen

Bob Mason

After a positive start to the week for the Tories, it was down to leadership debates in the week to provide the Pound with direction.

Following a pullback in response to the Tuesday debate, on Friday the leaders of the 4 leading parties faced questions from an audience in Sheffield.

Fortunately for some, perhaps all, each party leader took to the stage individually.

According to the YouGov snap poll, it was a tie on the night.

The polls revealed that 51% felt that Johnson had the upper hand in the debate, with 49% seeing Corbyn take the upper hand.

On the issue of trustworthiness, however, Corbyn came out slightly ahead of Johnson. 45% of viewers felt the Corbyn was more trustworthy, with 40% favoring Johnson.

Perhaps of greater significance was the poll on who people could relate to. Corbyn came out ahead with 59% of viewers seeing him more in touch with ordinary people. Just 25% thought Johnson was more relatable…

For the leaders of the Scottish National Party and Liberal Democrats, Sturgeon got a grilling over Brexit, while Swinson got one over austerity.

With both parties well behind the Tories and Labour, the only significant comment came from Sturgeon. She affirmed that the SNP would be willing to work with Labour but not with the Tories. That ultimately means that the Tories will need to win by a majority next month.

The UK Election Opinion Polls, Predictions, and Odds

While the YouGov opinion poll tracker had yet to be updated at the time of writing, opinion polls from elsewhere continued to point to a Tory victory.

The Observer had the Tory Party lead widen to 19 points from 16 points from the previous week. That gave Boris 47% of the vote share and Labour with just 28%. For the Lib Dems, the poor showing continued as they garnered just 12% of the vote share.

The Telegraph also reported widening support for the Tories. Through last week the Tories saw support rise 4 points to 41%, while Labour’s lead eased by one point to 28%.

According to Electoral Calculus predictions, the Tories are predicted to win 365 seats, which would give a majority of 80. The predicted majority rose by 4 seats from the previous polls between 12th and 19th November. The previous prediction had given a majority of 72 seats.

The opposition party was predicted to win 202 seats, rising by just 1 seat.

While the Labour Party leader was viewed as the most trustworthy in the Friday Q&A, Johnson’s support appeared unwavering.

The YouGov poll going into Monday will likely have a greater influence, however, in spite of the latest predictions.

Hung Parliament

The latest bookmakers’ odds shifted once more over the weekend.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority stood at 4/9 after odds of ‘1/2’ going into the weekend. Last Monday, the odds had stood at 6/11 and at 4/7 on Friday 15th November.

The odds of the Tories winning the most seats held steady at 1/16. The odds had moved back from 1/14 to 1/16 ahead of the weekend.

For the opposition party, the odds of winning the most seats held steady at 12/1. The odds of an overall Labour majority also held steady at 30/1 after improving from 33/1 to 30/1.

With the Lib Dems struggling to see an uptick in support, the latest opinion polls and Electoral Calculus figures suggest that the chances of a hung parliament remained slim.

At the time of writing, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament stand at 11/5. Ahead of the weekend, the odds had stood at 15/8. At the start of the week, the odds had stood at 9/4.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Pound

For the Pound, Corbyn’s performances in the week weighed, leaving the Pound down by 0.49% to $1.2834 for the week. A 0.63% slide on Friday left the Pound in the red, with economic data also contributing to the decline.

For the Pound, the next set of YouGov opinion poll trackers will influence ahead of the next leadership debates. Party leaders hit the stage on Thursday and Friday of next week.

With the latest polls wider across the major media outlets, YouGov should delver some early upside for the Pound on Monday.

It could all change at the end of the week, however, with the debates in focus. It’s worth noting that even trustworthiness appears to be insufficient to boost support for Labour…

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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