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UMH Properties, Inc.'s (NYSE:UMH) Stock Been Rising But Financials Look Weak: Should Shareholders Be Worried?

·4 min read

UMH Properties' (NYSE:UMH) stock is up by 4.0% over the past month. Given that the markets usually pay for the long-term financial health of a company, we wonder if the current momentum in the share price will keep up, given that the company's financials don't look very promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to UMH Properties' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for UMH Properties

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for UMH Properties is:

8.6% = US$57m ÷ US$670m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2021).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.09 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

UMH Properties' Earnings Growth And 8.6% ROE

When you first look at it, UMH Properties' ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, the fact that the its ROE is quite higher to the industry average of 6.6% doesn't go unnoticed by us. Yet, UMH Properties has posted measly growth of 3.6% over the past five years. Remember, the company's ROE is quite low to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the low earnings growth.

As a next step, we compared UMH Properties' net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 9.0% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is UMH worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether UMH is currently mispriced by the market.

Is UMH Properties Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

UMH Properties' very high three-year median payout ratio of 188% suggests that the company is paying its shareholders more than what it is earning and it definitely contributes to the low earnings growth seen by the company. That's a huge risk in our books. You can see the 6 risks we have identified for UMH Properties by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

Moreover, UMH Properties has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 71% over the next three years.

Summary

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on UMH Properties. While its ROE is pretty moderate, the company is retaining very little of its profits, meaning very little of its profits are being reinvested into the business. This explains the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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