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Understanding the Fall in Toyota Motor’s Sales in 2015

Gabriel Kane

Yesterday’s Consumer Pops and Drops: THS and KHC, SON and TM

(Continued from Prior Part)

Price movement of Toyota Motor

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) has a market cap of $188.6 billion. It fell by 0.37% to close at $111.10 per share as of January 21, 2016. The stock’s price movement on weekly, monthly, and YTD (year-to-date) bases was -3.4%, -10.7%, and -9.7%, respectively.

As the graph shows, Toyota Motor’s stock has technically broken support and was trading below all moving day averages on January 21. As of that date, TM was trading 7.0% below its 20-day moving average, 9.0% below its 50-day moving average, and 13.2% below its 200-day moving average.

What this has meant for SCHF and FNDF as of January 20

The Schwab International Equity ETF (SCHF) invests 0.17% of its total holdings in Toyota Motor. The ETF tracks the FTSE Developed ex-US Index, a market-cap-weighted index that consists of large-cap and mid-cap stocks in developed markets. The YTD price movement of SCHF was -10.6% as of January 20, 2016.

By comparison, the Schwab Fundamental International Large Company ETF (FNDF) invests 0.07% of its total holdings in Toyota Motor. FNDF tracks an index of large firms from developed markets, ex-US, and its selection and weighting are based on fundamental factors including sales, cash flow, and dividends and buybacks.

The respective market caps of Toyota Motor’s competitors are as follows:

  • Ford Motor Company (F)—$47.7 billion

  • General Motors Company (GM)—$46.0 billion

Performance of Toyota Motor Thailand in 2015

Check out this telling breakdown of Toyota Motor Thailand in 2015:

  • Total car sales fell to 266,005 units, which represents a fall of 18.7% over 2014.

  • Passenger car sales fell to 105,398 units, or by 30.7%, over 2014.

  • Commercial vehicle sales fell to 160,607 units, or by 8.2%, over 2014.

  • CBU export sales fell to 376,763 units, which represents a fall of 12.0% over 2014.

Notably, TM’s price-to-earnings and price-to-book value ratios were 8.9x and 1.2x, respectively, as of January 21, 2016.

Projection for Toyota Motors

The company has projected the following numbers for Toyota Motor Thailand in 2016:

  • Passenger car sales should reach 89,000 units.

  • Commercial vehicle sales should hit 151,000 units.

  • Total car sales should hit 240,000 units.

Now let’s move to the biggest gainers on January 21, starting with the performance of TreeHouse Foods.

Continue to Next Part

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