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Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from Univest Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UVSP), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$282m coming in 3.7% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$3.11, in line with analyst appraisals. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering Univest Financial provided consensus estimates of US$274.7m revenue in 2022, which would reflect a noticeable 2.5% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 21% to US$2.45 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$273.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.43 in 2022. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$34.50, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Univest Financial, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$37.00 and the most bearish at US$31.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 2.5% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Univest Financial is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Univest Financial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Univest Financial going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Univest Financial you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.