It's shaping up to be a tough period for Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc. (NYSE:UBA), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$29m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 71%, coming in at just US$0.04 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Urstadt Biddle Properties' twin analysts is for revenues of US$136.4m in 2021, which would reflect an okay 4.8% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 116% to US$0.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$136.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.74 in 2021. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The average price target fell 15% to US$13.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Urstadt Biddle Properties'historical trends, as next year's 4.8% revenue growth is roughly in line with 4.2% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.7% per year. It's clear that while Urstadt Biddle Properties' revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Urstadt Biddle Properties. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Urstadt Biddle Properties' future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Urstadt Biddle Properties. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Urstadt Biddle Properties going out as far as 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Urstadt Biddle Properties is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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