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Shareholders might have noticed that The First of Long Island Corporation (NASDAQ:FLIC) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to US$17.05 in the past week. First of Long Island reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$113m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.72, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, First of Long Island's five analysts are forecasting 2021 revenues to be US$114.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 6.2% to US$1.62 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$114.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.62 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 9.1% to US$20.00. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on First of Long Island, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that First of Long Island's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 1.0% increase next year well below the historical 6.0%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that First of Long Island is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that First of Long Island's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for First of Long Island going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for First of Long Island (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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