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US Dollar Mounts Rebound as S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water

Ilya Spivak

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has mounted a shallow recovery but follow-through from broader sentiment trends remains suspect as the S&P 500 continues to tread water.



S&P 500 – Prices are testing support at 1453.20, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, after testing the top of a rising channel set from early June. A break to the downside targets 1439.80, a Fibonacci confluence point marked by the 50% expansion and 23.6% retracement. Channel resistance is now at 1477.00, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% expansion at 1480.70. A push above that exposes the 1500 figure and the 76.4% level at 1532.20.


US_Dollar_Mounts_Rebound_as_SP_500_Continues_to_Tread_Water_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Mounts Rebound as S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0




CRUDE OIL Prices are testing support at 91.56, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, after taking out the bottom of a rising channel carved out since early July. A break downward targets the 50% level at 88.83. The channel bottom – now at 94.96 – has been recast as resistance. A push back above that aims to challenge a falling trend line set from late February (now at 99.38).


US_Dollar_Mounts_Rebound_as_SP_500_Continues_to_Tread_Water_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Mounts Rebound as S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0




GOLD Prices continue to stall after taking out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1756.94 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1725.87 and 1687.84, the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements respectively.


US_Dollar_Mounts_Rebound_as_SP_500_Continues_to_Tread_Water_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Mounts Rebound as S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0




US DOLLAR Prices re-testing the previously broken bottom of a rising channel set from the September 14 low (now at 9831). A break higher initially exposes the 38.2%Fibonacci retracement at 9857. Near-term support lines up at 9783, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% expansion at 9738.


US_Dollar_Mounts_Rebound_as_SP_500_Continues_to_Tread_Water_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Mounts Rebound as S&P 500 Continues to Tread Water

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com


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