US natgas prices edge up 1% on rising feedgas to Freeport LNG in Texas

(Adds latest prices) Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up around 1% on Monday as the amount of gas flowing to the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increases after Freeport LNG's facility in Texas returned to near full service over the past few days. That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.3 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.657 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:03 a.m. EDT (1103 GMT). With U.S. gas prices up about 1% last week, speculators boosted their net long futures and options position on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row to their highest since late August, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states eased to 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a record 102.3 bcfd in August. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain near normal until around Sept. 24 before turning mostly warmer than usual from Sept. 25-Oct. 3. Traders, however, said that above normal temperatures in late September were still mild with averages expected to be around 72 degrees Fahrenheit (22.2 Celsius) versus a normal of 70 F for that time of year. With exports expected to increase in coming weeks, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, will edge up to 96.3 bcfd next week from 96.0 bcfd this week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants averaged 12.8 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.3 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a 16-week high of 13.5 bcfd on Sunday with the increase at Freeport. The 2.1-bcfd Freeport plant was on track to pull in about 2.0 bcfd of gas for a third day in a row on Monday, up from an average of 0.3 bcfd from Sept. 10-13, according to LSEG data. Looking ahead, traders noted Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland was on track to shut for about a week of planned maintenance around Sept. 21-29, according to company notices to customers. Cove Point shuts every year in the autumn for maintenance. In 2022, it shut from around Oct. 1-27, according to LSEG data. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar. Much higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Sep 15 Sep 8 Sep 15 average Forecast Actual Sep 15 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 69 57 99 84 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,274 3,205 2,859 3,086 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 6.1% 6.8% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.65 2.64 7.76 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.07 11.46 57.90 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.48 13.37 46.99 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 18 17 19 28 52 U.S. GFS CDDs 111 119 130 127 94 U.S. GFS TDDs 129 136 149 156 146 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.2 101.9 102.0 99.6 92.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.1 6.7 7.2 8.5 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 109.3 108.7 109.2 108.1 100.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 6.5 6.9 5.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.1 13.2 13.0 11.4 6.5 U.S. Commercial 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.9 U.S. Residential 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 U.S. Power Plant 42.1 37.0 37.0 36.2 34.9 U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 79.4 74.2 74.4 73.2 72.5 Total U.S. Demand 100.5 96.0 96.3 92.4 87.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103 Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98 Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 8 Sep 1 Aug 25 Wind 5 9 6 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 6 5 Other 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 46 44 45 45 Coal 18 19 19 20 Nuclear 19 17 18 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.74 2.81 Transco Z6 New York 1.08 1.50 PG&E Citygate 4.01 4.24 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.15 1.52 Chicago Citygate 2.35 2.43 Algonquin Citygate 1.22 1.62 SoCal Citygate 3.93 4.80 Waha Hub 2.09 2.29 AECO 1.87 1.96 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 21.50 26.00 PJM West 29.00 33.00 Ercot North 29.75 33.00 Mid C 42.00 82.80 Palo Verde 40.50 45.50 SP-15 33.50 44.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans)