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US Retail Rise: ETFs in Focus

Zacks Equity Research
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U.S. retail sales picked up in March after declining for three straight months, as consumers bought more motor vehicles and other expensive items, reflecting a revival in consumer spending owing to tax cuts and refunds. Eight of 13 major retail categories showed improvement.

Into the Headlines

Overall retail sales increased 0.6% in March, after 0.1% drop in each of the previous three months. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, core retail sales ticked up 0.4% in March after remaining unchanged in February. Core retail sales are most closely aligned with the consumer spending component of GDP (read: 3 ETFs to Better Prepare for Aggressive Rate Hikes).

Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP, which seems to have slowed in 2018. It grew 4.0% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2017 but tepid wage growth in February might have dented purchasing power. However, given the recent positive numbers, analysts believe the U.S. economy is entering the second quarter with great momentum, after a harsh winter marred purchasing power for big-ticket items at the beginning of 2018.

In March, auto sales rose 2.0% after a 1.3% drop in February. Moreover, sales at furniture stores increased 0.7% while electronics and appliances stores witnessed an increase of 0.5%. However, sales at building material stores declined 0.6% in the month while receipts at clothing stores fell 0.8%. Moreover, gas station sales dropped 0.3% in the month, the steepest since July.

Let us now discuss a broad ETF providing exposure to the retail space.

SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT

This fund focuses on providing exposure to the U.S. retail industry that looks to benefit from improved consumer sentiment. It has AUM of $358.1 million and charges a fee of 35 basis points a year. It has an allocation of 2.0% to Guess Inc GES, 1.6% to Finish Line Inc. Class A FINL and 1.6% to Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A ANF. The fund has returned 9.4% in a year. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a Medium risk outlook.

Let us now discuss a few sector-specific ETFs we touched upon above.

First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund CARZ

Increased auto sales in March might benefit this ETF. This fund focuses on providing exposure to the global automotive sector, with 20.7% allocated to the United States. It has AUM of $20.9 million and charges a fee of 70 basis points a year. It has an allocation of 8.0% to General Motors GM and 7.5% to Ford F. The fund has returned 23.6% in a year. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook.

PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction Portfolio PKB

This fund is a popular ETF focused on providing exposure to the U.S. building and materials construction sector. Weakness in building material stores might negatively impact this ETF.

It has AUM of $297.0 million and charges a fee of 63 basis points a year. The fund’s top three holdings are DR Horton Inc DHI, PulteGroup Inc PHM and AAON Inc AAON, with 5.2%, 5.2% and 5.1% allocation, respectively. The fund has returned 9.6% in a year. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a High risk outlook.

United States Gasoline Fund UGA

This fund focuses on providing exposure to a widely used commodity — gasoline. Weakness in gasoline receipts might negatively impact this ETF. It has AUM of $46.2 million and charges a fee of 75 basis points a year. The fund has returned 17.8% in a year.

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Ford Motor Company (F) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
General Motors Company (GM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AAON, Inc. (AAON) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
SPDR-SP RET ETF (XRT): ETF Research Reports
 
US GAS FUND LP (UGA): ETF Research Reports
 
PWRSH-DYN BLDG (PKB): ETF Research Reports
 
FT-NDQ GL AUTO (CARZ): ETF Research Reports
 
Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
The Finish Line, Inc. (FINL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Guess?, Inc. (GES) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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