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USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Loonie Bears May Take the Call Post-release of the US Home Sales Data

Nikhil Khandelwal

After remaining consolidated in the last few sessions, the loonie pair took a slide in the early hours. Today, the pair opened up slumping 0.14 percent from 1.3377 levels. Despite the fall, the USD/CAD remained in the safer upper side of the chart.

The crude oil is currently trading at the top levels since a year. The commodity upsurged in the Asain session amid reports suggesting complete rejection of the Iran sanction waivers. The countries who imported oil from Iran had appealed for the waivers. Notably, they had enjoyed the Iranian heavier oil used for making diesel, jet fuel, and other peer crude products.

This 2.48 percent upliftment in the crude prices drove the commodity-linked loonie pair downwards. The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures was trading near the then day’s high $65.79 per barrel at 07:35 GMT.

The pressure on the oil prices is expected to keep growing amid the rising the OPEC-led supply cuts. The pain accompanying the deepening of the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela further adds to the oil prices.

On the other hand, the USD/CAD remained stabilized on the backdrop of the robust greenback. The Strong Retails data helped the US Dollar Index to climb heights, thereby elevating the loonie pair.

USD/CAD Influential Events:

On Easter Monday, the Event Calendar stays lighter with insufficient intense pair-moving events. Though there are no CAD-related events, few US events do line up for today.

12:30 GMT

The  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will broadcast the March economic activity index – the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This index gives an overview of the activities performed during the period and the relative inflation-adjusted impact. CFNAI had recorded a negative 0.29 points in the previous month.

14:00 GMT

The National Association of Realtors will provide an estimate of the March MoM existing Home Sales. Housing data is crucial as it alludes a profound material impact on the overall market sentiment. The street analysts, however, stay quite bearish on the upcoming numbers. They anticipate the figures to come around 210K lower than the previous 5.51 million.

If the Home Sales data misses estimates, then the loonie pair may experience a robust downward force underpinned oil upsurge.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 60 Min 22 April 2019

The USD/CAD traded just above the significant 200-days Simple Moving Average (SMA) quoting minor positivity around its movements. However, the 55-days SMA stood above both the loonie pair and the 100-days SMA, awakening the bulls in the near-time. The EMA of the Bollinger traveled coinciding with the 21-days SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained near 40 levels, revealing weak momentum in the pair. The pair was trading near the lower band gap of the Bollinger bands, confirming the bear call.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire