Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: I focused on the USDJPY in Friday’s weekly, writing that “the rise is best classified as a 3 wave advance (triangle wave b). Just like last week, the implications are to look for an early week top. A rally into 100.17/26 would be most welcome. Why? 100.17 is the post FOMC minutes close (hourly) and a significant volume level. 100.26 is the 61.8% of the decline from 101.53. Watch the rate along with the 30 year US bond (see below chart) to improve entry. Strong support is seen at the 61.8% retracement / trendline / large volume NFP hourly close of 133 6/32. It’s critical to be alert to pattern and market levels in the bond market in the current market environment. In fact, pattern and a support in the bond level helped us anticipate Wednesday’s reaction.” The USDJPY slightly exceeded the estimated resistance area but quickly reversed this morning. The 30 yr US Bond also reversed from just above the cited support.
FOREXTrading Strategy: Will probably do something soon…but need to see how the market trades over the next day before Tuesday night’s BoJ minutes.
LEVELS: 98.54 98.94 99.69 100.10 100.97 101.52