The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but gave back a bit of the gains to show signs of exhaustion. Ultimately, this is a market that looks very likely to continue to see a lot of choppy and erratic behavior, as it is so highly sensitive to risk appetite around the world. The Japanese yen should be continue to be favored in the environment that we find ourselves in, as there are a lot of problems when it comes to global growth, and of course the US/China situation. While things have cooled down recently, the reality means that it’s only a matter time before something ugly happens. Once it does, the Japanese yen will come right back into favor.
USD/JPY Video 11.09.19
All things being equal, we will probably go looking towards the ¥106 level, but if we were to break above the ¥108 level, it would obviously be a sign of strength. That would be much more convincing if we had some type of good economic news or a major “risk on” situation, something that will be temporary at best. All things being equal, we are still very much in a downtrend so it’s probably only a matter time before we roll over again. Most people are looking at this as a short-term move, so fading an exhaustive candle makes quite a bit of sense as we continue to see a lot of trouble around the world longer term.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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