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  • Sugar to Get More Expensive as India Set to Miss Export Target

    (Bloomberg) -- India is set to miss its goal for sugar exports this year because of a late start to shipments and logistical challenges, potentially providing further fuel to the sweetener’s blistering rally.The world’s second-biggest producer, grappling with massive stockpiles, will ship almost 20% less than the government’s target and a forecast from a top industry group, according to the median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts.The risk to supplies comes just as the global market is on a tear. Raw sugar futures posted their 10th month of gains in February, the longest winning run in exchange data going back six decades. With a tightening market because of lower crops in Thailand and the European Union, coupled with robust demand in Asia, a setback to Indian exports may provide a further fillip to the market.“Although world prices have gone up, exports are going to miss the target,” said Yatin Wadhwana, a director at commodity trading and advisory company Gradient Commercial Pvt. India started shipping later than usual owing to a delay in government subsidies, while a container crunch and the approaching monsoon season will hamper loadings at ports, he said.The country’s inventories follow a raft of bumper crops spurred by domestic prices that are above global levels. The government has granted a form of subsidy to bridge the gap, but that won’t be enough to reach the target.Shipments may be only 4.9 million tons in the year that ends in September, according to the survey. That compares with the government’s target of 6 million tons and forecasts for a similar amount from the Indian Sugar Mills Association. The nation exported a record 5.95 million tons in 2019-20.Container shortages and competition for shipping services from firms exporting increasing amounts of rice and oilseed meal are contributing to delays.Most people in the market had expected India to be shipping strongly in the first and second quarters of 2021 as the big domestic crop was “well telegraphed to the market,” said Tom McNeill, director at Brisbane, Australia-based researcher Green Pool Commodity Specialists. “This has now led to a major disconnect in the market –- there is plenty of stock in India to be exported, but very little has come out to this time,” he said in a report.With the harvest coming to an end, there won’t be much time for mills to boost raw sugar output for export. The processors may have to sell low quality whites in bulk instead of raws, and that will reduce possible sale destinations.Still, some analysts and industry officials estimate that exports will end up reaching a record for a second year in 2020-21 as strong demand, elevated global prices and subsidies mean India will sell 6 million tons by Sept. 30.Exporters have already contracted 2.5 million tons to 3 million tons of sugar since December for shipments by May, according to Adhir Jha, chief executive officer and managing director of Sugar Exim Corp.“We have enough time and with the international market firming up, there is every reason to believe that the target will be met,” Jha said in an interview. “We are very much on track. Some traders are giving lower estimates to put pressure on local prices so that they can benefit from that.”Domestic production is expected to jump 10% to 30.2 million tons in 2020-21 because of plentiful monsoon rains, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association. At the start of the current season, India had 10.7 million tons of reserves, enough to meet local demand for about five months.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – RBA ‘Remains Committed to the 3-Year Yield Target’

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  • Insight: How private equity squeezes cash from the dying U.S. coal industry

    Private equity firms are proving there’s still plenty of profit in the U.S. coal industry despite a decade of falling demand for the fossil fuel. Since the end of 2014, at least five U.S. private equity firms have bought coal plants in markets where regulators pay them to be on standby to provide emergency power when demand surges with extreme hot or cold weather, according to a Reuters review of U.S. regulatory disclosures and credit-rating agency reports. The lucrative investments illustrate how fossil fuels will remain an important part of the energy mix - and continue spinning off cash for investors - even years after demand for them peaks as the world transitions toward cleaner energy sources.

  • RBNZ Says It Can Increase Weekly Bond Purchases If Needed

    (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s central bank said it’s watching financial markets closely for signs of dysfunction and warned it has the ability to increase its weekly bond purchases to put more downward pressure on yields.The Reserve Bank “observed pockets of dysfunction” last week and has the operational flexibility to adjust its Large Scale Asset Purchase program up or down, Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said in an interview Tuesday in Wellington. Under the NZ$100 billion ($73 billion) program, the bank is currently buying NZ$570 million of government bonds a week.“We are watching markets very closely, we’re very aware of what’s going on and we do have that ability to adjust the size of our LSAP operations from week to week,” Hawkesby said. “We absolutely have the flexibility to adjust those purchases down or up.”Central banks are fighting back against runaway bets on inflation that have seen global bond yields surge, undermining monetary stimulus. The Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday bought twice as many longer-dated government bonds as it usually does, spurring the biggest drop in yields there in a year.Hawkesby noted the RBA’s recent purchases and reiterated that the RBNZ remains committed to a prolonged period of stimulus. The bank could cut its official cash rate -- currently at 0.25% -- further if needed, even into negative territory, he said.“The message that we’re giving along with other central banks is that stimulus is going to be in place for a long time, that we need to have a very high degree of confidence that we’re going to achieve our mandate and that will take time and patience to occur,” Hawkesby said. “We have to ability to lower the official cash rate, and we need to keep reminding markets that we have that ability.”While the economic recovery in New Zealand has been stronger than elsewhere, “it has been very uneven, it is very fragile” and “there is a material probability that we may have to lower the official cash rate” to achieve the RBNZ’s mandate, Hawkesby said.He cited the current Auckland lockdown due to a Covid-19 outbreak as a reminder of the risks. “There’s still a long way to go. These periods can erode confidence,” he said.New Zealand Central Bank Told to Include Housing in Rate PolicyAsked about the government’s move last week to make the RBNZ take soaring house prices into consideration when setting both monetary and financial policy, Hawkesby said the directive on financial policy was “the first and most important part of the changes.”He said the RBNZ’s financial policy is now required to “have regard” to housing, while the bank has only been asked to “assess the implications” of its monetary policy decisions on the property market. He drew a distinction between the two, saying the former was a “higher threshold” than the latter, which amounted to “a point around transparency and communication.”“The key message is that the appropriate tool to use if we’re going to influence sustainable house prices is our macroprudential tools,” Hawkesby said. “When we make our monetary policy decisions we need to make them with a clear understanding of the broader context we’re operating in. The remit helps articulate that more fully.”It would take time for markets to understand these announcements “and the primacy of the macroprudential tools in that space.”The RBNZ would like to see mortgage rates fall further, Hawkesby said.(Updates with Hawkesby comments throughout)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Your next stimulus check may be in jeopardy now

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  • Day-Trading Reddit Users Nearly Crashed the Stock Market. Now They’re the Organizing Principle for a New ETF.

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  • Cathie Wood’s ARKK Sinks 20% From Peak as Tech Sells Off

    (Bloomberg) -- The main fund from Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management extended its drop from a February peak to 20%, highlighting a swift turnaround for the formerly high-flying stocks favored by the firm.The $24.6 billion Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) tumbled 6.3% on Wednesday alone as growth stocks such as Pinterest Inc. and Zillow Group Inc. took a beating. The Nasdaq 100 Index lost almost 3% as traders turn away from tech in favor of so-called value stocks that had underperformed during the pandemic, bringing its losses since a peak last month to 8.1%.The rotation, along with higher bond yields that dim the allure of equities, is taking the shine off what had been one of the hottest investments on Wall Street, with ARKK growing 10-fold over the past year, including a whopping $2.37 billion inflow just last month. Since peaking on Feb. 12, ARKK’s price has now dropped by a fifth, the level that commonly defines a bear market.“People are worried the crowded trades will lose their momentum like they did last September” when some of the biggest tech names suffered a bout of selling, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes have jumped more than 50 basis points in 2021, on track for the largest quarterly increase since 2016. Consequently, it’s growing more difficult to justify sky-high valuations for highly speculative, expensive areas of the stock market.ARKK’s three largest holdings, Tesla Inc., Square Inc. and Roku Inc., have about tripled over the past year. Tesla is up close to 350%, while Square has surged about 200% and Roku is up more than 240%. On Wednesday, they all slumped.In fact, all but three stocks held by ARKK fell and three suffered losses exceeding 10%, including Stratasys Ltd., a maker of 3D printers, and Veracyte Inc., which develops molecular tests for oncology.The fund’s tilt toward long-term growth means short-term profitability isn’t a key consideration when stocks are picked. In fact, two-thirds of its current holdings didn’t make a profit in the past year. And even after the recent losses, ARKK is still slightly up for the year.Inflows to the fund have faltered in the past week, but there’s yet to be a mass exodus. ARKK took in more than $600 million combined the past two days, after losing more than $690 million last week in its worst five-day period on record.“There is growing unease in the markets and whether higher-risk asset classes can continue to climb,” said Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors. “If sentiment turns, you can see substantial outflows.”(Updates prices throughout)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Maxing Out Your 401(k) and What to Do Next

    Max out your 401(k) each year, and be sure to get your 401(k) employer match, if you have one. And for you super savers, here are other ways to save for retirement.

  • The oil market’s wild pandemic ride is about to take another turn

    The oil industry is no stranger to boom-bust cycles, but the pandemic has been its wildest ride to date, and on March 4 it’s due to take another turn when OPEC meets to consider rolling back production cuts. As the world’s cars and airplanes idled, global oil demand bottomed out in April at levels 16.4% below the previous year, dragging the price into negative territory for the first time. White-knuckling through it all has been OPEC, the 13-member cartel that dictates quotas for most of the world’s biggest oil-producing countries (notably excluding the US).

  • Texas begins naming electricity firms overdue on winter crisis bills

    Eight energy companies have failed to pay nearly $1 billion for power and services during February's deadly power blackout in Texas, the state's grid operator said this week, and the costs are likely to fall on consumers. Texas consumers will see higher prices as the unpaid fees are passed along to remaining providers. Power grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) last week said grid users it did not identify had failed to pay $2.46 billion due.

  • Stellantis CEO says 4th largest carmaker to be disruptive

    Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares on Wednesday said the new car company formed from the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and PSA Peugeot would be a “disruptive” force in the industry, and that both sides would provide technologies to achieve the promised 5 billion euros ($6 billion) in cost savings each year. The Italian-American carmaker and the French mass-market automotive company completed their merger on Jan. 16, creating Stellantis, the world’s fourth-largest carmaker, despite a pandemic year that saw profits plunge.

  • Investors Dumped Cloud Stocks Today. Here’s Why.

    FEATURE Investors dumped their holdings in cloud-based software stocks on Wednesday, taking profits in last year’s hottest names and shifting cash to other sectors expected to benefit from an economic recovery late this year.

  • BJs Wholesale Is Creeping In On Costco's Territory: Here's How

    Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) remains the wholesale leader, but smaller rival BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (NYSE: BJ) is showing superior metrics. What To Know: Costco entered 2020 on a strong note but the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic quickly shifted buying habits, according to the foot traffic analytic firm Placer.ai report. Since early 2020, Costco has seen inconsistent foot traffic trends to the point where it saw year-over-year growth in just four months -- all of which were in the back half of the year. BJs, on the other hand, saw a stellar 2020 with year-over-year foot traffic growth in every month except January. The smaller wholesale chain averaged 13.8% monthly year-over-year growth in visits in the back half of 2020. The momentum continues into 2021 with an identical 13.8% growth rate in January. Related Link: Can Grocers Sustain The 'Pre-Christmas Bump'? Why It's Important: Foot traffic trends are only one part of the equation as it's possible that customers are visiting Costco less often but spending more per trip. In Costco's case, visits were down 1.7% from November 2020 to January 2021 while visits per visitor were down 28.9%. "A massive decline in visits per visitor alongside a fairly minor drop in overall visits shows that Costco may actually be stronger than it's ever been and that the brand is likely adding new members at a very high rate," according to the Placer.ai report. What's Next: BJs deserves credit for a strong 2020 performance but it's unclear if it can sustain momentum in 2021 and beyond, according to Placer.ai. The company continues to offer the compelling value that stands out amid economic uncertainty. BJs Wholesale's stock is up nearly 60% over the past year, while Costco's is up about 4.5%. See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaAccelerated Vaccine Timeline Will 'Inspire Confidence' In Travel Says Marriott CEOBurger King UK's Menu To Be Half Plant-Based Food By 2031© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • Rocket Companies Short Squeeze Gives $25B Single-Day Boost To Dan Gilbert's Wealth

    Rocket Companies Inc (NYSE: RKT) founder Dan Gilbert’s wealth got a $25 billion booster on Tuesday as the holding company gets the attention of retail investors on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets, according to Bloomberg Billionaire’s Index. What Happened: Gilbert, Age 59, has moved up 19 spots to No. 16 on the index that tracks 500 of the world’s richest. A large chunk of Gilbert’s fortune, 93% to be precise, is comprised of his stake in Rocket, reported Bloomberg. See also: How to Buy Rocket Companies (RKT) Stock Why It Matters: The one-day jump in Gilbert’s wealth is the largest so far in the year, noted Bloomberg. As of press time, Detroit-based Rocket Companies with subsidiaries such as Rocket Mortgage and Quicken Loans was the most discussed company on WallStreetBets, according to SwaggyStocks data. WallStreetBets investors previously carried out short squeezes in the stocks of GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME), AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC), Nokia Oyj (NYSE: NOK), BlackBerry Ltd (NYSE: BB), and others. Rocket reported 162% revenue growth and 350% growth in net income for the fourth quarter, which beat analyst estimates. The company’s shares have shot up since last Friday. S3 Partners data indicates the Rocket has currently $1.2 billion in short interest — making it one of the most shorted stocks in the market. Price Action: Rocket shares traded nearly 8.2% lower at $38.20 in after-hours trading on Tuesday after shooting up almost 71.2% in the regular session. Photo by Steve Jennings on Wikimedia See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaRocket Companies Overtakes GameStop, Palantir As WallStreetBets' Top Interest© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • How to Buy Bitcoin at an 80% Premium From Michael Saylor

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  • Workhorse Wants to Overturn the USPS Decision. What That Would Mean for the Stock.

    Commercial electric-vehicle maker Workhorse meets with the USPS Wednesday to discuss its contract bid loss to Oshkosh.

  • U.S. Inflation Expectations Hit Decade High as Yields Resurge

    (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries tumbled anew on Wednesday, driving long-maturity yields to their highest levels this week and pushing up inflation expectations as traders continued to price in a quicker economic rebound from the pandemic.Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields surged as much as 10.3 basis points to 1.495%, a move reminiscent of last Thursday’s startling selloff in government debt. Meanwhile, a market proxy for the anticipated annual inflation rate for the next half-decade exceeded 2.5% for the first time since 2008 -- aided by climbing oil prices. At least part of the trigger for the fixed-income losses came from the U.K., which said it will sell more bonds than expected as its economy emerges from a deep recession.Also in the background was Joe Biden’s announcement that enough doses of virus vaccine should be available to every American adult by the end of May, and a report Wednesday that the president would moderate certain stimulus demands to try to win support for his virus-relief bill. Rising yields have started to draw the attention of Federal Reserve officials, leaving all eyes on an appearance Thursday by Chair Jerome Powell.Among other things, “the stimulus package is likely to go through and the economy is reopening,” said Michael Franzese, managing partner at MCAP LLC in New York. “The battle is on between rates going higher super-fast and a Federal Reserve that’s trying to keep the market stable and may try to slow the momentum of the reflation and economic-rebound trade into something more manageable.”Early inklings of inflation were evident in data from the Institute for Supply Management this week: Measures of prices paid jumped to their highest levels since 2008.A large trade on Wednesday in 10-year Treasury options and accompanying futures selling also fueled the leap in yields, as did heavy corporate bond supply.The rates market is not yet done fully pricing in robust U.S. economic growth, which would entail a 10-year yield trading around 1.90%, said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management in Horsham, Pennsylvania. That’s the level last seen in January 2020, two months before pandemic fears started prompting forced shutdowns in the U.S.Beyond rising nominal and breakeven rates, “the dynamic rise in the 10-year real, inflation-adjusted yield we’ve seen is the market partly adjusting to a faster-than-anticipated pace of rate normalization by the Fed,” he said.The timing of the Fed’s first rate hike, known as liftoff, and subsequent rate hikes haven’t been factored in, making Treasuries vulnerable to a further selloff in the weeks ahead, according to Heppenstall.(Adds reference to Fed rate hikes in ninth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Monthly stimulus checks may be on the way for families later this year

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  • What Will Happen To Bitcoin In The Next Decade?

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