Should Value Investors Pick Novartis AG (NVS) Stock?
Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. After all, who wouldn’t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value?
One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. Let’s put Novartis AG NVS stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks:
PE Ratio
A key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio, or PE for short. This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock, and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.
On this front, Novartis AG has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 17.1 as you can see in the chart below:
This level actually compares pretty favorably with the market at large, as the PE for the S&P 500 compares in at about 20.1. If we focus on the stock’s long-term PE trend, the current level puts Novartis AG’s current PE ratio equivalent to its midpoint (which is 17.1) over the past five years.
Further, the stock’s PE also compares favorably with the sector’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 21.1. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now, compared to its peers.
We should also point out that Novartis AG has a forward PE ratio (price relative to this year’s earnings) of just 16.4, so it is fair to say that a slightly more value-oriented path may be ahead for Novartis AG’s stock in the near term too.
P/CF Ratio
An often overlooked ratio that can still be a great indicator of value is the price/cash flow metric. This ratio doesn’t take amortization and depreciation into account, so can give a more accurate picture of the financial health in a business. This is a preferred metric to some valuation investors because cash flows are (a) generally less prone to manipulation by the company’s management and (b) are less affected by variation in accounting policies between different companies.
The ratio is generally applied to find out whether a company’s stock is overpriced or underpriced with reference to its cash flows generation potential compared with its competitors. However, it is not commonly used for cross-industry comparison, as the average price to cash flow ratio varies from industry to industry.
In this case, Novartis AG’s P/CF ratio of 12.0 is somewhat lower than the industry average of 16.4, which indicates that the stock is somewhat undervalued in this respect.
Broad Value Outlook
In aggregate, Novartis AG currently has a Value Style Score of B, putting it into the top 40% of all stocks we cover from this look. This makes NVS a solid choice for value investors, and some of its other key metrics make this pretty clear too.
For example, the PEG ratio for Novartis AG is just 1.8, a level that is slightly lower than the industry average of 1.9. The PEG ratio is a modified PE ratio that takes into account the stock’s earnings growth rate. Clearly, NVS is a solid choice on the value front from multiple angles.
What About the Stock Overall?
Though Novartis AG might be a good choice for value investors, there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name. In particular, it is worth noting that the company has a Growth grade of D and a Momentum score of D. This gives NVS a VGM score—or its overarching fundamental grade—of C. (You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores here >>)
Meanwhile, the company’s recent earnings estimates have been mixed at best. The current quarter has seen one estimate go lower in the past sixty days compared to none higher, while the full year estimate has seen one upward and no downward revisions in the same time period.
This has had a noticeable impact on the consensus estimate, as the current quarter consensus estimate has fallen about 2.9% in the past two months, while the full year estimate has inched up 0.4%. You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below:
Novartis AG Price and Consensus
Novartis AG Price and Consensus | Novartis AG Quote
Despite this somewhat mixed trend, the stock has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on the back of its strong value metrics and this is why we are expecting above-average performance from the company in the near-term.
Bottom Line
Novartis AG is an inspired choice for value investors, as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front. Boasting a strong industry rank (top 27% out of more than 250 industries) and a strong Zacks Rank, the company deserves attention right now. However, over the past one year, the sector has clearly underperformed the broader market, as you can see below:
So, value investors might want to wait for estimates, analyst sentiment and industry trend to turn favorable in this name first, but once that happens, this stock could be a compelling pick.
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