VBI Vaccines Inc. (NASDAQ:VBIV) Analysts Just Slashed Next Year's Revenue Estimates By 20%
The analysts covering VBI Vaccines Inc. (NASDAQ:VBIV) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.
After this downgrade, VBI Vaccines' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$5.3m in 2021. This would be a major 263% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to US$0.22. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.7m and losses of US$0.20 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for VBI Vaccines
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$6.67, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values VBI Vaccines at US$9.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that VBI Vaccines' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 263% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 29% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that VBI Vaccines is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at VBI Vaccines. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on VBI Vaccines after today.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for VBI Vaccines going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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