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Can Vertex (VRTX) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive?

Zacks Equity Research

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

When looking at the last two reports, this drugmaker has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 19.33%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the last reported quarter, Vertex came out with earnings of $1.26 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 per share, representing a surprise of 22.33%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.98 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.14 per share, delivering a surprise of 16.33%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Vertex. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Vertex has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.


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