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Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Visteon (NASDAQ:VC) share price has dived 32% in the last thirty days. The recent drop has obliterated the annual return, with the share price now down 29% over that longer period.
All else being equal, a share price drop should make a stock more attractive to potential investors. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E ratio means that investors have a high expectation about future growth, while a low P/E ratio means they have low expectations about future growth.
Does Visteon Have A Relatively High Or Low P/E For Its Industry?
Visteon's P/E of 21.72 indicates some degree of optimism towards the stock. As you can see below, Visteon has a higher P/E than the average company (12.8) in the auto components industry.
Its relatively high P/E ratio indicates that Visteon shareholders think it will perform better than other companies in its industry classification. Clearly the market expects growth, but it isn't guaranteed. So investors should always consider the P/E ratio alongside other factors, such as whether company directors have been buying shares.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
If earnings fall then in the future the 'E' will be lower. Therefore, even if you pay a low multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become higher in the future. So while a stock may look cheap based on past earnings, it could be expensive based on future earnings.
Visteon shrunk earnings per share by 54% over the last year. And over the longer term (3 years) earnings per share have decreased 8.4% annually. This could justify a low P/E.
Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits
One drawback of using a P/E ratio is that it considers market capitalization, but not the balance sheet. So it won't reflect the advantage of cash, or disadvantage of debt. The exact same company would hypothetically deserve a higher P/E ratio if it had a strong balance sheet, than if it had a weak one with lots of debt, because a cashed up company can spend on growth.
Such expenditure might be good or bad, in the long term, but the point here is that the balance sheet is not reflected by this ratio.
So What Does Visteon's Balance Sheet Tell Us?
Visteon has net cash of US$81m. That should lead to a higher P/E than if it did have debt, because its strong balance sheets gives it more options.
The Verdict On Visteon's P/E Ratio
Visteon trades on a P/E ratio of 21.7, which is above its market average of 15.1. The recent drop in earnings per share might keep value investors away, but the net cash position means the company has time to improve: and the high P/E suggests the market thinks it will. What can be absolutely certain is that the market has become significantly less optimistic about Visteon over the last month, with the P/E ratio falling from 31.8 back then to 21.7 today. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for a contrarian, it may signal opportunity.
Investors have an opportunity when market expectations about a stock are wrong. People often underestimate remarkable growth -- so investors can make money when fast growth is not fully appreciated. So this free report on the analyst consensus forecasts could help you make a master move on this stock.
You might be able to find a better buy than Visteon. If you want a selection of possible winners, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20 (but have proven they can grow earnings).
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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