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Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) Share Price Is Matching Sentiment Around Its Earnings

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Simply Wall St
·3 min read
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When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 22x, you may consider Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) as an attractive investment with its 11.9x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been pleasing for Vistra as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Vistra

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If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Vistra.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

Vistra's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 75% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 5.2% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 5.7% each year during the coming three years according to the six analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 15% each year.

In light of this, it's understandable that Vistra's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

What We Can Learn From Vistra's P/E?

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Vistra's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Vistra has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Vistra. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.