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Volatility 101: Should Apollo Endosurgery (NASDAQ:APEN) Shares Have Dropped 48%?

Simply Wall St

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the Apollo Endosurgery, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEN) share price is down 48% in the last year. That's well bellow the market return of 3.4%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Apollo Endosurgery because we don't have a long term history to look at. It's down 4.3% in the last seven days.

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Check out our latest analysis for Apollo Endosurgery

Apollo Endosurgery isn't a profitable company, so it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In just one year Apollo Endosurgery saw its revenue fall by 11%. That looks pretty grim, at a glance. Shareholders have seen the share price drop 48% in that time. What would you expect when revenue is falling, and it doesn't make a profit? It's hard to escape the conclusion that buyers must envision either growth down the track, cost cutting, or both.

You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).

NasdaqGM:APEN Income Statement, May 24th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Apollo Endosurgery stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

While Apollo Endosurgery shareholders are down 48% for the year, the market itself is up 3.4%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. It's great to see a nice little 2.0% rebound in the last three months. This could just be a bounce because the selling was too aggressive, but fingers crossed it's the start of a new trend. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.