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Volatility 101: Should Banc of California (NYSE:BANC) Shares Have Dropped 25%?

Simply Wall St

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the Banc of California, Inc. (NYSE:BANC) share price is down 25% in the last year. That's well bellow the market return of 3.7%. Zooming out, the stock is down 21% in the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Banc of California

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Unfortunately Banc of California reported an EPS drop of 17% for the last year. The share price decline of 25% is actually more than the EPS drop. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NYSE:BANC Past and Future Earnings, October 8th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Banc of California's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Banc of California's TSR of was a loss of 23% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 3.7% in the last year, Banc of California shareholders lost 23% (even including dividends) . However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 7.6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.