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Volatility 101: Should Concord New Energy Group (HKG:182) Shares Have Dropped 38%?

Simply Wall St

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Concord New Energy Group Limited (HKG:182) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 38% over a half decade. The silver lining is that the stock is up 1.3% in about a week.

View our latest analysis for Concord New Energy Group

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

While the share price declined over five years, Concord New Energy Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 26% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. However, revenue has declined at a compound annual rate of 20% per year. With dividends up, but revenue down, some investors might be concluding that the company is no longer growing.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:182 Income Statement, October 2nd 2019

We know that Concord New Energy Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Concord New Energy Group, it has a TSR of -28% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Concord New Energy Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 29% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 6.4% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. Before forming an opinion on Concord New Energy Group you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.