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Volatility 101: Should Level One Bancorp (NASDAQ:LEVL) Shares Have Dropped 14%?

Simply Wall St

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Level One Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:LEVL) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 14%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 4.8%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Level One Bancorp because we don't have a long term history to look at.

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See our latest analysis for Level One Bancorp

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Level One Bancorp share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 20%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped. It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.

Given the yield is quite low, at 0.6%, we doubt the dividend can shed much light on the share price. Level One Bancorp's revenue is actually up 12% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.

The graphic below shows how revenue and earnings have changed as management guided the business forward. If you want to see cashflow, you can click on the chart.

NasdaqGS:LEVL Income Statement, May 22nd 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 4.8% in the last year, Level One Bancorp shareholders might be miffed that they lost 14% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. It's great to see a nice little 3.6% rebound in the last three months. This could just be a bounce because the selling was too aggressive, but fingers crossed it's the start of a new trend. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

Level One Bancorp is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.