U.S. Markets closed

Volatility 101: Should MarineMax (NYSE:HZO) Shares Have Dropped 34%?

Simply Wall St

Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card!

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) share price is down 34% in the last year. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned -0.7%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 2.7% in three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 16% in the last three months.

Check out our latest analysis for MarineMax

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the MarineMax share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 38%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped. It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.

MarineMax's revenue is actually up 12% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.

You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).

NYSE:HZO Income Statement, June 4th 2019

We know that MarineMax has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think MarineMax will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that MarineMax shareholders are down 34% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.7%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.8% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how MarineMax scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.