Is Walmart (NYSE:WMT) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Walmart
How Much Debt Does Walmart Carry?
As you can see below, Walmart had US$52.5b of debt, at July 2019, which is about the same the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$9.28b in cash, and so its net debt is US$43.2b.
How Healthy Is Walmart's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Walmart had liabilities of US$80.3b due within a year, and liabilities of US$77.4b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$9.28b and US$5.38b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$143.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Walmart is worth a massive US$329.5b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Walmart has net debt of just 1.3 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 9.3 times, which is more than adequate. While Walmart doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Walmart's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Walmart produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 80% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Happily, Walmart's impressive conversion of EBIT to free cash flow implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. All these things considered, it appears that Walmart can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. Of course, we wouldn't say no to the extra confidence that we'd gain if we knew that Walmart insiders have been buying shares: if you're on the same wavelength, you can find out if insiders are buying by clicking this link.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
