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Watch out! You’ll get 'ripped' if you’re in the wrong sector, Wall Street veteran Art Hogan warns

Stephanie Landsman
Watch out! You’ll get 'ripped' if you’re in the wrong sector, Wall Street veteran Art Hogan warns

A veteran Wall Street forecaster is out with a warning, and it has nothing to do with a broad-based stock market sell-off. Wunderlich Securities' Art Hogan is arguing you'll "get your face ripped off if you're in the wrong sector." The issue has to do with the lengthy low-yield environment. He says the impact would be costly to scores of investors exposed to two particular defensive areas known for paying dividends. "Chasing yield has pushed a lot of people into utilities and staples," said the firm's chief market strategist on Friday's " Trading Nation ." "If we have any lift at all in yield on the 10-year [Treasury] ... that sector could give back three years of dividends in about two weeks." In the past five years, consumer staples (NYSE Arca: XLP) have soared 54 percent while utilities (NYSE Arca: XLU) are up 51 percent. Hogan isn't downbeat on the entire market. He's urging investors to consider financials (NYSE Arca: XLF), which are down nearly 5 percent over the past four weeks, as an alternative. The space has been under pressure due to falling bond yields. Plus, Hurricane Harvey and now Irma have been challenging the sector. "The charts look terrible, and that's exactly why you may want to start thinking about this. My guess is the yield on the 10-year (U.S.:US10Y) is going to go to two and a half percent before it goes to one and a half," Hogan said. "I don't think it would take very much — the right commentary out of [European Central Bank President Mario] Draghi, the right commentary out of this Fed meeting in September about balance-sheet normalization, and that group could pop pretty quick. It's very oversold."

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