Should Weakness in GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.'s (NYSE:GHG) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

With its stock down 26% over the past month, it is easy to disregard GreenTree Hospitality Group (NYSE:GHG). However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to GreenTree Hospitality Group's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for GreenTree Hospitality Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for GreenTree Hospitality Group is:

10% = CN¥147m ÷ CN¥1.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.10 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of GreenTree Hospitality Group's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

At first glance, GreenTree Hospitality Group seems to have a decent ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 17%. Further research shows that GreenTree Hospitality Group's net income has shrunk at a rate of 44% over the last five years. Not to forget, the company does have a high ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So there might be other reasons for the earnings to shrink. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

However, when we compared GreenTree Hospitality Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 19% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is GHG fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is GreenTree Hospitality Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Summary

Overall, we feel that GreenTree Hospitality Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, while the company does have a decent ROE and a high profit retention, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.