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Week 10 fantasy busts: Drew Brees, T.Y. Hilton among big names set to flop

Week 10 Fantasy Lames: Martin captain on sinking ship

Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names whom he believes are destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 12 fpts, WR: 11 fpts, TE: 10 fpts). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 10 Lames in the comments section below.

Drew Brees, NO, QB (93 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $33)
Matchup: at Buf

Every year NFL teams, like almost every fantasy roster, undergo a dramatic metamorphosis. Injuries, player advancements, coaching changes and various capricious factors play into the incubation. The Saints are a prime example. At the beginning of the season, most assigned the usual descriptions to New Orleans – prolific passing attack, extremely suspect defense, a borderline contender. However, given the upheaval across the board in the NFC, the Saints are suddenly humming … as a running team. Currently the No. 2 seed in the conference playoff stack, they’ve transformed from air-exclusive to a ground-pounding, defensive menace. Brees hasn’t retired the Howitzer by any stretch, but the 1-2 punch of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined with an aggressive pass rush and ascending secondary led by rookie Marshon Lattimore have changed general perception. Sean Payton’s club is on the verge of acquiring completeness. They’ve even solved the road riddle, winning three consecutive contests away from the Superdome. Despite the upsurge, Brees is a dicey proposition in Week 10. Indications suggest the Bills will have E.J. Gaines (50.5 passer rating allowed) back in uniform. When healthy, he, Tre’Davious White (50.0 catch% allowed), Micah Hyde (5 INTs) and Jordan Poyer (2 INTs) have greatly hindered the opposition. Recall Weeks 1-5 with Gaines on the field, the Bills surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points, 6.6 yards per attempt and just two touchdowns to signal callers. Throw in Buffalo’s recent troubles stuffing holes and it could be a heavy dose of Kamara/Ingram, not Brees.

Fearless Forecast: 257 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 2 rushing yards, 13.5 fantasy points

[Week 10 rankings: Overall | PPR | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Ks]

Adrian Peterson, Ari, RB (80 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $17)
Matchup: vs. Sea

If biological technology existed where Peterson’s DNA could be bottled and sold to geriatrics, grandpas everywhere would abruptly abandon their Rascals and bust through holiday shopping crowds. It’s freakish what the decorated rusher, with 2,765 career touches under his belt, has accomplished in his brief stint with Arizona. Credit the desert warmth. In three games with the Cardinals, he’s totaled 23 evaded tackles, 334 yards from scrimmage and a 2.50 YAC per attempt. What a renaissance. Still, his reversal should be taken with a grain of salt. Arizona’s offensive line still ranks outside the top-20 in run-blocking efficiency according to multiple advanced metric sites. Also worth mentioning, Peterson achieved big numbers against a pair of highly permeable defenses in Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Off AP’s career-high 37 carries against the Niners, Bruce Arians no doubt will continue to spoon feed the rusher, but his matchup this week is a tall task. Seattle, uncharacteristically forgiving against the run early this season, has remedied its trench issues. Tightening up since Week 4, the ‘Hawks have surrendered 2.90 yards per carry, 56.8 rush yards per game and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Throw in the offenses high predictability with Drew Stanton at the helm and Peterson’s one-dimensional makeup and an unenthusiastic outcome seems likely.

Fearless Forecast: 20 carries, 68 rushing yards, 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.0 fantasy points

Doug Martin, TB, RB (71 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $20)
Matchup: vs. NYJ

The Lorax, Ryan Fitzpatrick, may speak for the trees, but when it comes to Martin’s value he will bring fantasy owners to their knees. You’re welcome, Dr. Seuss. With Jameis Winston sidelined for the next couple weeks, which should give him an opportunity to not only improve his shoulder but also his pregame speech game, the bearded passer will once again man the wheel of yet another NFL franchise. Fitzpatrick’s magic wand may be retired and his career averages are rather unexciting (59.8 cmp%, 6.7 ypa), but he’s at least serviceable. Still, without Mike Evans (suspension), the Jets are sure to key on Martin in the trenches. The rusher has seen a stacked box just 23.3 percent of the time this year, but that number could easily climb. Even against friendly fronts he’s underwhelmed. On the year, he ranks No. 92 in fantasy points per opportunity, has tallied a ghastly 3.9 yards per touch and hasn’t scored in three-straight games. The matchup, too, isn’t the greatest. Turning a corner in their past five contests, the Jets have yielded 3.57 yards per carry, one rushing TD, 3.57 yards per carry and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Leonard Williams, Denario Davis and Steve McLendon have really come to play. Add it up and it’s doubtful the Muscle Hamster spins the wheel.

Fearless Forecast: 14 carries, 52 rushing yards, 1 reception, 7 receiving yards 0 touchdowns, 6.4 fantasy points

T.Y. Hilton, Ind, WR (87 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $15)
Matchup: vs. Pit

Seeing Hilton at WR8 overall in standard Yahoo leagues after the yoyo campaign he’s compiled is similar to seeing Amari Cooper on the Oakland Raiders hands team – bewildering. But with three games of 150-plus yards, including last week’s 5-175-2 evisceration of Houston, the season ranking is substantiated, despite his seven scoreless contests and six efforts of 60 yards or less. Don’t be seduced by the cursory view. Hilton, and 52.3 catch percentage (25.0% inside the red zone), will only continue to be the object for unreliability. Pittsburgh, rattled by few wide receivers this season, has allowed only four WRs to reach the 10-point mark. Additionally, the Steelers rank inside the top-11 in catch percentage (56.0, No. 10), yards per catch (12.3, No. 11) and fantasy points surrendered to WRs (No. 2). Artie Burns and a revitalized Joe Haden combined have given up an unpleasant 79.9 passer rating, 55.6 catch percentage and two TDs. Punctuated by its strong play at safety from Mike Mitchell and Sean Davis, avoiding Hilton is simple arithmetic.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 47 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.7 fantasy points

Jordy Nelson, GB, WR (79 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $27)
Matchup: at Chi

A newly discovered affliction is making the rounds in Fantasyland, an incorrigible scourge that has many understandably flummoxed. It’s called QB Suck Syndrome. Largely felt in Denver, Houston and Green Bay, the contagion has greatly marginalized otherwise week-to-week reliable receivers. Ask any Will Fuller, Emmanuel Sanders or Nelson owner how it feels to be gripped by its wrath. Jordy has indeed fallen ill. Trapped in a Brett Hundley-led offense that refuses to take shots downfield, he’s gone from must-start WR1 to debatable WR3. And that might be underselling it. In his past two games he’s attracted 11 targets catching just five passes for 48 yards and zero touchdowns. Hundley’s inaccuracy (58.8 cmp%, 5.0 ypa) is entirely responsible, despite Mike McCarthy’s contrary opinion. The passer is slowly suffocating Nelson’s value, rendering him virtually useless. This week against the arch-rival Bears the wideout’s fantasy pulse may fade entirely. Chicago, quietly, is one of the better pass defenses in the league. On the year, the Bears have given up a 57.3 catch percentage and six touchdowns (in eight games) to wide receivers. Taking another step, Kyle Fuller and Bryce Callahan together have allowed an 85.8 passer rating. Given the circumstances and matchup Nelson will only lower the bar.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 5.9 fantasy points



Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Lames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Week 9 Results: 3-4 (Season: 27-36)
My Week 9 Results: 8-2 (Season: 62-28) (W: Kirk Cousins, C.J. Anderson, Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Cameron Brate, Baltimore D/ST, Ameer Abdullah; L: Alshon Jeffery, Carlos Hyde)

Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise. Also check out his TV show, “The Fantasy Football Hour,” now available in 75 million households on Fox Sports Regional networks and his new podcast, “The Fantasy Record.