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The Week Ahead – Brexit, COVID-19 News, and Economic Data in Focus

Bob Mason

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 75 stats in focus in the week ending 4th September. In the week prior, 47 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s yet another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the first half of the week, the focus is on August’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP nonfarm employment change figures.

Following the impressive Markit survey numbers, the market’s preferred ISM survey will need to be aligned.

With sensitivity to labor market conditions remaining high, expect the ADP numbers to also influence.

It’s a busier 2nd half of the week.

On Thursday, the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI and weekly jobless claims figures will be key drivers.

The focus will then shift to August’s non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures.

Any weak numbers and expect risk aversion to sweep across the markets.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.94% to 92.371.

For the EUR:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, August manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain, and German unemployment figures are due out.

Finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will also draw attention.

The focus will then shift to July retail sales figures for Germany on Wednesday, ahead of a busy Thursday.

August’s service sector PMIs for Italy and Spain and finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will also be of interest.

Expect the Eurozone’s services and composite PMIs to be the key drivers, however.

At the end of the week, German factory order numbers for July will also influence.

Expect unemployment and retail sales figures for the Eurozone and prelim August inflation figures for member states to have a muted impact.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.90% to $1.1903.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized private sector PMIs for August are in focus in the week.

Any revisions to the prelim figures need to be considered. Expect the services PMI to have the greatest influence in the week.

On Friday, August’s BTC Retail Sales Monitor will also draw interest.

From the Bank of England, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak late on Thursday.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 2.00% to $1.3352.

For the Loonie:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

In the early part of the week, July’s RMPI will influence on Monday.

The focus will then shift to July trade figures on Thursday and August’s employment and Ivey PMI numbers on Friday.

We would expect August’s employment change figure to have the greatest significance.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.59% to C$1.3099 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Early in the week, 2nd quarter company gross operating profits, July private sector credit, and the AIG Manufacturing Index are in focus.

The focus will then shift to 2nd quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday.

Finally, July trade data on Thursday and retail sales figures on Friday will also draw plenty of attention.

On the economic data front, expect the GDP and retail sales figures to be the key drivers. The RBA has continued to raise uncertainty regarding consumption, which it sees as key to any economic recovery.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA is also in action on Tuesday. While the markets expect the RBA to stand pat, any forward guidance will influence. Perhaps the FED’s shift in its monetary policy framework will give members food for thought…

Following the spike in new COVID-19 cases in Victoria, there may also be the promise of more support.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 2.85% to $0.7365.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include August’s business confidence figures on Monday and July building consent numbers on Tuesday.

Expect the business confidence figures to have the greatest impact in the week.

Any fall in confidence would point to a likely further pullback in business investment and hiring. Following the RBNZ’s talk of negative rates, the Kiwi will likely be sensitive to any soft numbers.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 3.09% to $0.6743.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Prelim industrial production and retail sales figures kick start the week on Monday.

Finalized manufacturing and service sector PMIs on Tuesday and Thursday will also draw interest.

With economic data having been particularly gloomy, we’re not expecting too much influence on the Yen, however.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.41% to ¥105.37 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

August’s NBS private sector PMI numbers are due out on Monday, ahead of the market’s preferred Caixin figures.

Expect some influence on market risk sentiment.

On Tuesday, the focus will then shift to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI ahead of Thursday’s Services PMI.

We can expect plenty of influence from the numbers. Any pullback in the PMIs and expect risk aversion to hit the markets.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.78% to CNY6.8655 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

Just over a month remains before a framework needs to be in place. Both sides continue to dig in their heels, however. The chances of a no-deal departure remain high, with fisheries the stumbling block…

U.S Politics:

With the respective party national conventions over, the election polls will begin to draw interest. Trump continues to trail in spite of the U.S equity majors hitting record highs last week.

COVID-19 and social unrest remain key issues for Trump and the Republicans. A ramp-up in agri purchases by China will likely be well-received, however.

U.S – China Trade Talks

Trade talks delivered positive news to the markets last week. China ramped up soybean imports and stated that it would stick to the phase 1 agreement.

Trump may look to push for more, however, in a bid to narrow the gap with Biden. It remains to be seen whether China will play ball…

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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