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Week Ahead FX Analysis: US Data Key to April Dollar Progress


The focus on US data and Bernankes comments will be key after last weeks poor NFP number, continued poor performance in the US or comment’s highlighting downside risks could  avert a US dollar rally in the short term thus extending last weeks drop.

In this case we could see the Pound, Euro and potentially the Yen as interesting plays against the Dollar.

If Bernanke and good data manage to steady the ship then we expect to see more range bound price action.

Time Cur   Event   Forecast Previous
Tuesday, April 9
00:15   USD     Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
02:30   CNY     Chinese CPI (YoY) 2.4% 3.2%
02:30   CNY     Chinese CPI (MoM) -0.6% 1.1%
Wednesday, April 10
19:00   USD     FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, April 11
02:30   AUD     Employment Change -5.0K 71.5K
02:30   AUD     Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4%
13:30   USD     Initial Jobless Claims 365K 385K
Friday, April 12
13:30   USD     Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% 1.0%
13:30   USD     Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% 1.1%
17:30   USD     Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks


Pair dropped and flew higher today putting in a rather aggressive and Bullish candle. Depending on NFP tomorrow we suspect the Euro could now push higher but we still believe the upside is limited.

Personal Bias: Bullish

Support:  1.2870

Resistance: 1.23000

My Strategy:  Await for clear signals – can look for potential long options off of strong price rejections from key support levels (200 Day SMA)

$EURUSD (Daily) 27_11_2012 - 05_04_2013
$EURUSD (Weekly) Week 19_2011 - Week 14_2013


Pound significantly rejected lower prices today highlighting strong support at the 1.5000 level. This pair has room to the upside and another interesting weekly looking price rejection of lower prices. We do note strong levels at the close of last week and the 1.5520 mark.

Personal Bias: Bullish / Neutral

Support: 1.5275 / 1.5185

Resistance: 1.5365 / 1.5520

My Strategy: Standaside

$GBPUSD (Daily) 22_11_2012 - 05_04_2013
$GBPUSD (Weekly) Week 19_2011 - Week 14_2013



Aussie pushed lower from our signal on Wednesday. Weekly chart also looks bearish off of a weekly trendline resistance.

Personal Bias: Bearish

Support: 1.0370 (200 Day SMA)

Resistance:  1.0475

My Strategy: Lock in profits on short entry from Wednesday, can look for a short play off of weekly trendline resistance targeting 1.020

$AUDUSD (Daily) 27_11_2012 - 05_04_2013
$AUDUSD (Weekly) Week 22_2011 - Week 14_2013


We highlighted the potential for longs below 94.00 and included a 93.40 long in our members area which bagged over 300 pips on Thursday and Friday. Aggressive actions by BoJ sent this pair rocketing. Will be key now to see it break the weekly resistance at 96.50 before moving higher.

Personal Bias: Bullish

Support: 96.70 / 94.20

Resistance: ???

My Strategy: Lock in profit on long entries, can look to add to position on retests off of support

$USDJPY (Daily) 05_12_2012 - 05_04_2013
$USDJPY (Weekly) Week 27_2011 - Week 14_2013