U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    3,638.35
    +8.70 (+0.24%)
     
  • Dow 30

    29,910.37
    +37.87 (+0.13%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    12,205.85
    +111.45 (+0.92%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    1,855.27
    +10.25 (+0.56%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    45.52
    -0.01 (-0.02%)
     
  • Gold

    1,790.70
    +2.60 (+0.15%)
     
  • Silver

    22.77
    +0.14 (+0.60%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1963
    +0.0050 (+0.42%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    0.8420
    -0.0360 (-4.10%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3334
    -0.0022 (-0.17%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    103.9700
    -0.2800 (-0.27%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    18,252.45
    +484.39 (+2.73%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    333.27
    -4.23 (-1.25%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    6,367.58
    +4.65 (+0.07%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    26,644.71
    +107.41 (+0.40%)
     

The Week Ahead – U.S Politics, COVID-19, and Brexit Likely to Overshadow Data

Bob Mason
·5 min read

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 48 stats in focus in the week ending 13th November. In the week prior, 61 stats had also been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

September’s JOLTs job openings are due out on Tuesday, in what’s a particularly quiet start to the week.

The focus will then shift to October inflation and weekly jobless claims figures due out on Thursday.

Expect the jobless claims figures to have the greatest impact, with the markets expecting inflationary pressures to be muted.

At the end of the week, wholesale inflation figures for October and prelim November consumer sentiment figures will also draw attention.

We would expect the consumer sentiment figures to have the greatest impact on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and U.S politics will remain the key driver, however.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 1.92% to 92.229.

For the EUR:

It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

At the start of the week, German trade data for September will be in focus. The markets will be looking for a pickup in demand from overseas. Concerns over the economic outlook would limit any upside for the EUR, however.

On Tuesday, November’s ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will be in focus.

The focus will then shift to 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone, due out on Friday.

We won’t expect too much influence, however, with the markets now looking for the ECB to deliver next month.

Finalized October inflation figures for member states and Eurozone trade and industrial production figures will also likely be brushed aside.

From the ECB, ECB President Lagarde is due to speak in the week and could deliver some clues on what’s next. The ECB’s Economic Bulletin on Thursday will also draw interest.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates and U.S politics will remain a key driver in the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 1.95% to $1.1874.

For the Pound:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Tuesday, claimant counts and employment figures are due out ahead of a particularly busy Thursday.

On Thursday, 3rd quarter GDP and September manufacturing and industrial production figures will draw plenty of interest.

September trade data, retail sales, and house price figures are also due out. The stats should have a muted impact on the Pound, however.

Away from the economic calendar, expect Brexit to remain the key driver along with COVID-19 news updates.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 1.61% to $1.3156.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Economic data include housing start figures that should have a muted impact on the Loonie.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of COVID-19 and market sentiment towards the economic outlook.

The Loonie ended the week up by 2.03 % to C$1.3050 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats in the week include October business confidence and November consumer sentiment figures.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers. The RBA will be looking for last week’s rate cut to support a pickup in confidence, spending, and investment.

From elsewhere, economic indicators from the U.S and COVID-19 news updates will also influence. And, there’s U.S politics to also factor in.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 3.27% to $0.7258.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

Electronic card retails for October are due out on Tuesday ahead of the Business PMI on Friday.

While the stats will influence, the RBNZ monetary policy decision on Wednesday will be the main event.

Following the RBA’s rate cut last week, will the RBNZ deliver a dovish tone amidst the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic?

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 2.40% to $0.6774.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a particularly quiet week on the economic calendar.

September’s current account figures, due out on Tuesday, will have a muted impact on the Yen.

The focus in the week will be on geopolitics and COVID-19.

Expect a continued rise in new COVID-19 cases to support demand for the Yen.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 1.25% to ¥103.35 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

Key stats include October inflation figures due out on Tuesday and new loan figures on Wednesday.

The markets will be looking for wholesale deflationary pressures to ease as manufacturing sector activity continues to pick up.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 1.18% to CNY6.6125 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

As mid-November rapidly approaches, its last chance saloon for the UK and the EU to form an agreement.

News from the weekend suggests that a deal may be close.  It remains to be seen, however, whether there’s just plenty of hype or legitimate resolutions to key hurdles.

U.S Politics

Over the weekend, Biden became President-Elect. Trump’s unwillingness to concede and potentially lengthy legal battles could test the markets, however.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

More From FXEMPIRE: