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The Week Ahead – U.S Politics, COVID-19, Brexit, and Private Sector PMIs in Focus

Bob Mason
·6 mins read

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 57 stats in focus in the week ending 23rd October. In the week prior, 56 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, housing sector figures for September are in focus.

With mortgage rates hovering close to historic lows, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar.

On Thursday, however, U.S jobless claims figures will influence ahead of private sector PMIs on Friday.

October’s prelim services, manufacturing, and composite PMIs are due out at the end of the week.

Expect the Services PMI to be the key driver. The markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity…

Away from the economic calendar, we are just over 2-weeks away from the U.S Presidential Election. Wednesday’s final live televised Presidential debate will garner plenty of attention as will chatter from Capitol Hill. We can also expect increased interest in the Senate Election polls.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.67% to 93.682.

For the EUR:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, German wholesale inflation figures are due out ahead of a busier 2nd half of the week.

On Thursday, Germany is back in focus, with November consumer climate figures due out.

Prelim October private sector PMIs from France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be the key drivers on Friday, however.

We can expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers. A new spike in new COVID-19 cases in France and other parts of the EU may have impacted activity at the start of the quarter.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 will need monitoring throughout the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.91% to $1.1718.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

The markets will have to wait until Wednesday, however, for the first set of numbers.

Inflation figures for September are due out ahead of CBI industrial trend orders on Thursday.

We would expect the Pound to be sensitive to the inflation figures ahead of a busy end to the week.

On Friday, retail sales figures for September and prelim October private sector PMIs will provide direction.

With the BoE open to negative rates, dire numbers will test support for the Pound.

Of greater influence in the week, however, will be Brexit and COVID-19 news.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.93% to $1.2915.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

At the start of the week, wholesale sales figures for August are in focus on Monday.

We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

On Wednesday, September inflation and August retail sales figures will provide direction.

From elsewhere, expect GDP numbers from China and prelim private sector PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S to also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, risk appetite will likely be dictated by COVID-19 and the U.S Presidential Election polls. There’s also the final presidential debate to consider on Wednesday.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.52% to C$1.3189 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of Australia to provide the Aussie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Aussie Dollar firmly in the hands of market risk sentiment in the week.

Expect China’s GDP numbers and prelim PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S to influence

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes at the start of the week will garner interest. There has been the talk of an RBA move next month, the minutes could reveal what is on the cards…

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 2.20% to $0.7081.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

In the 1st half of the week, 3rd quarter business confidence figures are due out. A pickup in confidence would provide support to the Kiwi ahead of a busy Friday.

Trade data for May and 3rd quarter inflation figures will influence at the end of the week.

While the stats will provide direction, however, economic data from China and COVID-19 will likely be the key drivers.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.96% to $0.6602.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Trade data for September will draw interest at the start of the week ahead of inflation at the end of the week.

We don’t expect the numbers to have too much influence on the Yen, however.

The key driver for the Japanese Yen, however, will be COVID-19 news and U.S politics.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.21% to ¥105.40 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

3rd quarter GDP numbers due out on Monday will be the key driver for the Yuan and market risk sentiment.

September’s industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures will also influence.

Barring particularly dire numbers, the fixed asset investment numbers should have a muted impact.

On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is in action on Tuesday. The markets are expecting the PBoC to leave loan prime rates unchanged. Any unexpected rate cut could spook the markets…

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.04% to CNY6.6976 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

On Friday, Boris Johnson announced that Brexit negotiations were over. Downing Street added the EU chief negotiator Barnier does not need to return to London in the week ahead.

Following the EU’s attempts to leave the ball in Britain’s court, with Fisheries a key issue, it now rests with the EU to compromise. Johnson has been clear that it would not leave fishing access unchanged, despite Macron’s attempts to strong-arm Britain into yielding.

For French fishermen, it would ultimately mean no access to UK fisheries should Britain leave without a deal…

Also at the start of the week, the British Prime Minister is due to announce more containment measures. With the number of new COVID-19 cases continuing to rise, further restrictions would be Pound negative.

U.S Politics

After last week’s individual town hall sessions, the final live televised debate will take place on Wednesday.

It will be a chance for Trump to narrow the gap ahead of the 3rd November Election.

If past performance is any indicator of future performance, however, it could just give Biden a greater edge.

As the markets begin to write-off a Trump victory, the focus will likely shift to the Senate Elections.

A blue wave is expected that would support further stimulus in the New Year.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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