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Week in preview: Another dull holiday week

Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA

Realist Real Estate Roundup, December 23–27 (Part 6 of 7)

(Continued from Part 5)

Next week promises to be uneventful

With the New Years holiday coming in the middle of the week, next week promises to be relatively dull. Many senior traders will take the entire week off, leaving only junior traders with orders not to take a position unless they absolutely have to. The past year has undoubtedly been terrible for bond desks and bond funds, so we won’t see traders swinging for the fences this late in the year.

Economic data this week

Monday, December 30

  • Pending home sales
  • Dallas Fed

Tuesday, December 31

  • ISM Milwaukee
  • Case-Shiller
  • Chicago Purchasing Managers
  • Consumer confidence

Wednesday, January 1

  • Hangover Index

Thursday, January 2

  • Initial jobless claims
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  • Markit PMI
  • RBC Consumer Outlook
  • ISM
  • Construction spending

Friday, January 3

  • ISM NY

Earnings reports this week

No real estate–related earnings this week.

Impact on mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA) are highly interest rate–sensitive. We already know where the Fed stands with tapering, so there really isn’t much more for the REITs to focus on. Originators will be relieved to hear that Mel Watt plans to delay the price increases for Fannie Mae loans. This is a positive for originators after a decidedly melancholy 2013.

Impact on homebuilders

Next week contains a lot of data that will be of concern to the builders. Pending home sales, construction spending, and consumer confidence is a big deal to builders like Lennar (LEN) and Standard Pacific (SPF). We will also get some macroeconomic data with the ISM and Dallas Fed.

Continue to Part 7

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