Week in preview: Another dull holiday week
Realist Real Estate Roundup, December 23–27 (Part 6 of 7)
Next week promises to be uneventful
With the New Years holiday coming in the middle of the week, next week promises to be relatively dull. Many senior traders will take the entire week off, leaving only junior traders with orders not to take a position unless they absolutely have to. The past year has undoubtedly been terrible for bond desks and bond funds, so we won’t see traders swinging for the fences this late in the year.
Economic data this week
Monday, December 30
Pending home sales
Dallas Fed
Tuesday, December 31
ISM Milwaukee
Case-Shiller
Chicago Purchasing Managers
Consumer confidence
Wednesday, January 1
Hangover Index
Thursday, January 2
Initial jobless claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Markit PMI
RBC Consumer Outlook
ISM
Construction spending
Friday, January 3
ISM NY
Earnings reports this week
No real estate–related earnings this week.
Impact on mortgage REITs
Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA) are highly interest rate–sensitive. We already know where the Fed stands with tapering, so there really isn’t much more for the REITs to focus on. Originators will be relieved to hear that Mel Watt plans to delay the price increases for Fannie Mae loans. This is a positive for originators after a decidedly melancholy 2013.
Impact on homebuilders
Next week contains a lot of data that will be of concern to the builders. Pending home sales, construction spending, and consumer confidence is a big deal to builders like Lennar (LEN) and Standard Pacific (SPF). We will also get some macroeconomic data with the ISM and Dallas Fed.
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