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Weekly Price & Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Kristian Kerr

Gold breaks above a major resistance level this week while EUR/USD continues to consolidate below 1.3415. USD/JPY in a narrow range.


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Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_gold_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr


  • EUR/USD came under some steady pressure to start the week, but our key support level at 1.3185 was never threatened
  • Our medium-term trend bias remains lower in the Euro, but traction over the 1.3415 2Q13 high on a weekly closing basis will shift higher
  • Weakness under 1.3185 is desperately needed to reinvigorate the prospects for a more material downside move
  • The second half of the month looks like the next turn window of importance for the single currency
  • The 1.3415 2Q13 high is important from a Gann perspective and a weekly close over this level will alter the broader negative picture in place since June


Tactical EUR/USD Strategy: Short against a weekly close above 1.3415.


Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3185

1.3340

1.3365

*1.3415

1.3480


Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_gold_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr


  • USD/JPY found support (on a closing basis) early this week at the 1x1 Gann angle line of the late February low near 96.30
  • While over the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s high near 98.60 is now key resistance and traction over this zone is needed to trigger a more important push higher
  • The second half of the month now looks like the next cycle turn window of importance
  • Only aggressive weakness below the 2Q13 low on a multi-day closing basis would alter the broader postive prospects of the exchange rate


Tactical USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs still favored against .9375.



Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*93.75

95.90

97.35

*98.60

99.55


Weekly Price & Time Analysis: Gold

WPT_gold_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr


  • XAU/USD broke above important Fibonacci resistance near 1350 this week to trade to its highest level in almost 2-months
  • A weekly close over this level will turn the longer-term outlook to positive
  • A myriad of Gann and Fibonacci levels between 1372 and 1384 is the next resistance zone of note with strenght above needed to further confirm a trend shift
  • The next medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the end of the month
  • Only weakness below the 3rd square root progression of the year’s low near 1280 would turn us negative again on the metal


Tactical Gold Strategy: We like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.




Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1280

1317

1368

*1384

1400


--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.



Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.




To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX




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