Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?
So, the natural question for Montero Mining and Exploration (CVE:MON) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
How Long Is Montero Mining and Exploration's Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. When Montero Mining and Exploration last reported its balance sheet in June 2019, it had zero debt and cash worth CA$13k. In the last year, its cash burn was CA$451k. Therefore, from June 2019 it seems to us it had less than two months of cash runway. To be frank we are alarmed by how short that cash runway is! The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
How Is Montero Mining and Exploration's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Montero Mining and Exploration didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. As it happens, the company's cash burn reduced by 50% over the last year, which suggests that management are mindful of the possibility of running out of cash. Admittedly, we're a bit cautious of Montero Mining and Exploration due to its lack of significant operating revenues. So we'd generally prefer stocks from this list of stocks that have analysts forecasting growth.
How Hard Would It Be For Montero Mining and Exploration To Raise More Cash For Growth?
There's no doubt Montero Mining and Exploration's rapidly reducing cash burn brings comfort, but even if it's only hypothetical, it's always worth asking how easily it could raise more money to fund further growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.
Since it has a market capitalisation of CA$1.3m, Montero Mining and Exploration's CA$451k in cash burn equates to about 34% of its market value. That's fairly notable cash burn, so if the company had to sell shares to cover the cost of another year's operations, shareholders would suffer some costly dilution.
Is Montero Mining and Exploration's Cash Burn A Worry?
On this analysis of Montero Mining and Exploration's cash burn, we think its cash burn reduction was reassuring, while its cash runway has us a bit worried. Once we consider the metrics mentioned in this article together, we're left with very little confidence in the company's ability to manage its cash burn, and we think it will probably need more money. For us, it's always important to consider risks around cash burn rates. But investors should look at a whole range of factors when researching a new stock. For example, it could be interesting to see how much the Montero Mining and Exploration CEO receives in total remuneration.
Of course Montero Mining and Exploration may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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