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What's in the Cards for Progressive (PGR) in Q4 Earnings?

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·4 min read
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The Progressive Corporation PGR is slated to report fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Jan 26 before market open. The company delivered an earnings surprise in one of the three reported quarters of 2021 and missed estimates in the other two.

Factors to Consider

Improved rates, solid policies in force and higher retention in its strong performing Vehicle and Property businesses are likely to have driven premiums in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums written is pegged at $10.8 billion.

Policies in force are likely to have improved given the company’s focus on segmentation and prudent risk selection. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for personal lines policies in force is pegged at 22.8 million, indicating an increase of 6.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

A higher invested asset base is likely to have aided investment income, partly weighed down by a near-zero interest rate. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $209 million.

Improved premiums, increase in service revenues and fees as well as other revenues are likely to have fueled revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues stands at $12 billion, suggesting 13% year-over-year growth.

Progressive is a leading auto insurer in the United States and has one of the largest auto insurance groups. It is also the largest seller of motorcycle policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. Its personal auto business is likely to have benefited from its focus on marketing and competitive product offerings as well as its strong market presence.

Expenses might have risen on higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, and policy acquisition costs plus other underwriting expenses. The consensus estimate for loss and loss adjustment expenses ratio is pegged at 77.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 99 cents, indicating a 45.9% decrease from the year-ago quarter reported number.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).

Earnings ESP: Progressive has an Earnings ESP of +1.01%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.00 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 99 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Progressive Corporation Quote

Zacks Rank: Progressive currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks also with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Arch Capital Group ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at $1.02, indicating an increase of 82.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

Arch Capital delivered an earnings beat in all the three reported quarters of 2021.

Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +10.90% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at $2.77, indicating a decrease of 52.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

Allstate beat earnings estimates in two of the three reported quarters of 2021 while missing in one.

W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB has an Earnings ESP of +4.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is pegged at $1.21, indicating an increase of 31.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

W.R. Berkley beat earnings estimates in all the three reported quarters of 2021.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The Allstate Corporation (ALL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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