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What's in Store for Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q1 Earnings?

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·4 min read
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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Apr 27. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 17%.

How Are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at 50 cents per share, indicating growth of 150% from 20 cents per share registered in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $782.6 million, suggesting an increase of 24.7% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated price-eps-surprise | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Quote

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to get reflected in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Cheesecake Factory’s fiscal first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from solid off-premise sales, enhancement of marketing and technology platforms and unit expansion efforts. During the previous quarter’s earnings call, the company stated that off-premise sales contributed approximately 27% to the company’s total restaurant sales. Off-premise average weekly sales have doubled compared with fiscal 2019 levels. With increased focus on targeted off-premise marketing supported by a rise in customer count, the momentum is likely to have continued in the fiscal first quarter.

This along with sequential improvements in food efficiencies, labor productivity and hourly staff and manager retention is likely to have driven the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company’s fiscal first-quarter top line is likely to reflect an improvement in comps. During the previous quarter’s earnings call, the company stated that comps (through Feb 15) were up 24.3% on a year-over-year basis. Backed by a consistent rise in menu price coupled with an emphasis on new menu roll-out, the momentum is likely to have continued in the fiscal first quarter as well.

Wage inflation and volatility in the commodities market are likely to have impacted the fiscal first-quarter margins.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cheesecake Factory this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat estimates. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Cheesecake Factory has an Earnings ESP of -0.88%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space that investors may consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Shake Shack Inc. SHAK has an Earnings ESP of +6.85% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Shake Shack have declined 12.4% so far this year. SHAK’s earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 89.2%, on average.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL has an Earnings ESP of +11.33% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Cracker Barrel have declined 27.4% in the past year. CBRL’s earnings topped the consensus mark twice but missed the same on two occasions. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 350.5%, on average.

Groupon, Inc. GRPN has an Earnings ESP of +23.91% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Groupon have declined 57.2% in the past year. GRPN earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 396.7%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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