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What's in Store for Denbury Resources' (DNR) Q1 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

Denbury Resources Inc. DNR is expected to release first-quarter 2019 results on May 7, before the opening bell.

The Plano, TX-based company has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the prior four quarters, with the average being 27.3%.

Denbury Resources Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Denbury Resources Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Denbury Resources Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Which Way are Estimates Treading?

Let’s take a look at estimate revisions to get a clear picture of what analysts are thinking about the company before the earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 8 cents for first-quarter earnings has seen one upward and three downward revisions by firms in the past 30 days. This figure indicates a year-over-year decline of 33.3%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $307.5 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a fall of 13% from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors at Play

Denbury Resources has a relatively low-risk business model as it produces oil by applying tertiary recovery techniques in mature fields. In this regard, its Cedar Creek Anticline and Tinsley Field Cotton Valley properties are expected to have created promising exploiting opportunities, which will be reflected in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company has an oil-heavy portfolio (comprising 97.3% of the total volume in the last reported quarter). Hence, changes in crude price will affect its bottom line. Notably, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price in first-quarter 2019 was lower than the year-ago period. In January, February and March, WTI averaged $51.38, $54.95 and $58.15 per barrel, respectively, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In comparison, WTI averaged $63.70, $62.23 and $62.73 per barrel, respectively, in the first three months of 2018. Lower oil price realization will likely hurt the company’s first-quarter 2019 results. In such a situation, quarterly earnings are likely to fall 33.3% on a year-over-year basis.

What Our Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Denbury Resources is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the quarter to be reported. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pegged at 8 cents.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Denbury Resources currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Though a Zacks Rank of 3 increases the predictive power of ESP, a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Ranks #4 and 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Energy Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies from the energy space which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports.

Frisco, TX-based Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +11.95%. The company is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on May 9.

San Antonio, TX-based Abraxas Petroleum Corporation AXAS has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +133.33%. The company is slated to report first-quarter earnings on May 6.

Oklahoma City, OK-based Chaparral Energy, Inc. CHAP has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +110.00%. The company is set to report first-quarter earnings on May 9.

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