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What's in Store for Jack in the Box's (JACK) Q4 Earnings?

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Jack in the Box Inc. JACK is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Nov 23. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 22.6%.

Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.75, higher than $1.61 reported in the prior-year quarter. Over the past 30 days, the company’s earnings estimates have remained stable. The consensus mark for revenues stands at $299 million, suggesting growth of 13.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Note

Jack in the Box’s fiscal third-quarter results are likely to reflect a rise in same-store sales, backed by regular menu innovation, increased focus on delivery channels and marketing strategies. Average check growth and transactions might have aided the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for company restaurant sales and franchise rental revenues is pegged at $106 million and $86 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 18.4% and 8.9%, respectively. The consensus mark for franchise royalties and other revenues stands at $49.9 million, which indicates an improvement of 11.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Increased focus on unit expansion, off-premise business, drive-thru enhancements and more aggressive brand marketing may have driven the fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

However, rise in rise in labor and commodity costs are likely to have weighed on the to-be-reported quarter’s margins. Previously, the company had announced that it expects to witness higher cost owing to labor and supply chain shortages for the rest of 2021.

What Does the Zacks Model Say

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Jack in the Box this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Jack in the Box has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Peer Releases

Papa John’s International, Inc. PZZA reported robust third-quarter fiscal 2021 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. During the fiscal third quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings of 83 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69 cents by 20.3%. The bottom line surged 137.1% from 35 cents in the prior-year quarter. Quarterly revenues of $512.8 million beat the consensus mark of $501 million by 2.3%. The top line increased 8.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Papa John’s benefited from solid comparable sales in North America, driven by strong customer retention and innovation strategies. The company witnessed a rise in company-owned restaurant revenues, franchise royalties and commissary sales. International revenues benefited from higher franchise royalties and unit growth. This Zacks Rank #2 company’s shares have gained 42% in the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 2.6%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE reported third-quarter fiscal 2021 results, wherein both earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. In the quarter under review, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was 65 cents, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 70 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported an adjusted loss of 33 cents per share. This was primarily due to rise in labor and other operating expenses.

Cheesecake Factory gained from a solid off-premise sales growth. Quarter-to-date (through Nov 2), the off-premise model contributed 28% to total sales. Off-premise average weekly sales have 24.9.3% in the past six months, against the industry’s growth of 2.6%. Cheesecake Factory carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

YUM! Brands, Inc. YUM reported strong third-quarter 2021 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both the metrics improved year over year. During third-quarter 2021, the company’s adjusted earnings of $1.22 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported adjusted earnings of $1.01. Quarterly revenues of $1,606 million outpaced the consensus mark of $1,584 million. The top line improved 11% year over year.

YUM! Brands’ results in the quarter benefited from strong digital sales, robust unit development and a diversified global business model. The company strengthened its digital capabilities with the acquisition of Dragontail, which provides AI-based integrated kitchen order management and delivery technologies. The initiative paves the path for strengthening store operations and enhancing customer experience. During the third quarter, it reported digital sales of more than $5 billion. Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 company have gained 6.8% in the past six months.


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