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It hasn't been the best quarter for Gogo Inc. (NASDAQ:GOGO) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 26% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. The share price marched upwards over that time, and is now 228% higher than it was. After a run like that some may not be surprised to see prices moderate. The thing to consider is whether the underlying business is doing well enough to support the current price.
In light of the stock dropping 5.3% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.
Given that Gogo didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Gogo actually saw its revenue drop by 37% per year over three years. So we wouldn't have expected the share price to gain 49% per year, but it has. It's a good reminder that expectations about the future, not the past history, always impact share prices.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Gogo stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Gogo shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 6% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Gogo you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.
Gogo is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.