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Why Is AGNC Investment (AGNC) Up 2% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AGNC Investment (AGNC). Shares have added about 2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AGNC Investment due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

AGNC Investment Beats on Q1 Net Spread and Dollar Roll

AGNC Investment reported a first-quarter 2022 net spread and dollar roll income per common share (excluding estimated "catch-up" premium amortization costs) of 72 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents. The reported figure declined 5.3% from first-quarter 2021.

Adjusted net interest and dollar roll income (excluding catch-up premium amortization) was $423 million, declining from the quarter-ago number of $457 million.

The company reported a first-quarter comprehensive loss per common share of $2.23 against the prior-year quarter’s income of $1.33.

Inside the Headlines

NII of $448 million declined 15.2% sequentially.

AGNC Investment's average asset yield on its portfolio was 3.55% in the first quarter, down from 3.78% recorded in the prior-year quarter.

For the March-end quarter, the combined weighted average cost of funds, inclusive of interest rate swap, was 0.09%, higher than 0.02% witnessed in the prior-year quarter.

The average net interest spread (excluding catch-up premium amortization) was 2.19%, up from 2% reported in the prior-year quarter.

AGNC Investment’s tangible net book value "at risk" leverage ratio was 7.8X as of Mar 31, 2022, compared with 7.6X in the prior-year quarter.

For the March-end quarter, the company's investment portfolio bore a weighted average actual CPR of 14.5%, down from 24.6% witnessed in first-quarter 2021.

As of Mar 31, 2022, its tangible net book value per share (“BVPS”) was $13.12, down 16.7% from $15.75 as of Dec 31, 2021. Also, it compares unfavorably with BVPS of $17.72 as of Mar 31, 2021.

The annualized economic loss on tangible common equity for the company in the reported quarter was 14.4%. This included a dividend per share of 36 cents and a decrease of $2.63 in tangible net BVPS.

As of Mar 31, 2022, the company’s investment portfolio aggregated $68.6 billion. This included $47.4 billion of Agency MB, $19.5 million of net to-be-announced mortgage position, and $1.7 billion of credit risk transfer and non-Agency securities.

As of Mar 31, 2022, AGNC Investment’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $1,004 million, up from $998 billion as of Dec 31, 2021.

Capital Deployment Activities

In the first quarter, AGNC Investment announced a dividend of 12 cents per share each for January, February and March. Notably, the company declared $11.4 billion in common stock dividends or $44.68 per common share since its initial public offering in May 2008 through first-quarter 2022.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 12.15% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, AGNC Investment has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, AGNC Investment has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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