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Why Is Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) Up 15% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD). Shares have added about 15% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amicus Therapeutics due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Amicus' Q3 Loss Narrows, Galafold Sales View Updated

Amicus reported third-quarter 2023 loss of 7 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 8 cents. The company had reported a loss of 12 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year improvement can be attributed to Galafold revenue growth and careful expense management by the company.

Revenues in the third quarter totaled $103.5 million, up 27% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $101 million. The top line comprised sales of Galafold (migalastat), approved for Fabry disease. On a constant-currency (cc) basis, total year-over-year revenue growth was 22%.

Quarter in Detail

Galafold net product sales were $100.7 million in the third quarter, reflecting an increase of 19% year over year at cc. The drug’s sales beat our model estimate of $93.7 million.

Net product sales of newly approved Pombiliti + Opfolda were $2.8 million in the third quarter, representing sales in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Adjusted research and development expenses decreased 23.7% year over year to $36.3 million.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses totaled almost $53.5 million, up 40.8% from the year-ago quarter’s level.

Galafold View Tightened

The company tightened its previously issued guidance for 2023, reflecting the strong performance of Galafold.

Amicus now expects total Galafold revenue growth of 16-18% at cc compared with the previous projection of 14-18%. This was due to continued patient demand from both switch and treatment-naïve patients, expansion into other geographies, label extensions, continued diagnosis of new Fabry patients and commercial execution across all major markets, including the EU, Japan, the U.K. and the United States.

Adjusted operating expenses are estimated in the band of $330-$350 million, unchanged from the previous expectation.

The company targets to achieve profitability on a non-GAAP basis in the fourth quarter of 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Amicus Therapeutics has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Amicus Therapeutics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Amicus Therapeutics belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Amarin (AMRN), has gained 17% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2023.

Amarin reported revenues of $66.06 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -26.5%. EPS of $0 for the same period compares with $0.02 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Amarin is expected to post a loss of $0.05 per share, indicating a change of -350% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +11.1% over the last 30 days.

Amarin has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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