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Why Is Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) Up 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD). Shares have added about 8.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amicus Therapeutics due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Amicus' Q3 Loss Wider Than Expected, Revenues Beat

Amicus Therapeutics reported a loss of 22 cents per share (excluding loss on extinguishment of debt) in the third quarter of 2020, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 20 cents but narrower than the year-ago quarter’s loss of 24 cents.

Total revenues in the reported quarter were $67.4 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $65 million and increasing 38% from the year-ago quarter’s $48.8 million. Revenues were entirely derived from the sales of the company's drug Galafold (migalastat). Performance was driven largely by strong patient demand.

Quarter in Detail

Adjusted operating expenses of $92.4 million for the third quarter of 2020 increased from $89.7 million in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting continued investments in the gene therapy pipeline, offset by decreased travel and third-party costs.

2020 Guidance

For 2020, the company expects total Galafold revenues of $250-$260 million based on the average exchange rates for 2019.

Based on the current operating models, the company believes that the current cash position along with the net proceeds from the 2020 Senior Secured Term Loan and expected revenues is sufficient to fund its operations and ongoing research programs.

2020 Priorities

The lead pipeline candidate in Amicus’ portfolio is AT-GAA, a differentiated biologic for Pompe disease. The company plans to initiate a rolling biologics license application (BLA) for the same in late 2020.The company expects to add full clinical results for the PROPEL study in the first half of 2021 to support full approval.

Amicus has two gene-therapy programs for two different types of Batten disease. The company plans to advance regulatory discussions in order to finalize clinical and regulatory paths for CLN6 Batten disease gene-therapy development programs.

The company expects to report initial data on patients enrolled in the CLN3 Batten disease phase I/II study in early 2021. It plans to advance regulatory discussions to finalize clinical and regulatory paths.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -42.67% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Amicus Therapeutics has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Amicus Therapeutics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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