It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD). Shares have lost about 9.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amicus Therapeutics due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Amicus' Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates in Q1
Amicus reported loss of 39 cents per share in the first quarter of 2019 (excluding loss on exchange of convertible notes), wider than the year-ago loss of 28 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 31 cents.
Total revenues in the first quarter were $34 million, reflecting 104% surge from $16.7 million in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $38 million. The company realized revenues from commercial sales of its only marketed drug, Galafold (migalastat).
The growth was largely driven by net new patients added in the first quarter along with higher-than-anticipated prescriptions in the EU, Japan and the United States, and continued global compliance and adherence rates exceeding 90%. Revenues were in line with management’s expectations. The company expects the drug to generate revenues of $160 million-$180 million, with more than 1,000 Fabry patients by the end of the year.
Amicus expects to complete enrollment in pivotal PROPEL study for AT-GAA in Pompe disease by 2019 end.
The company has two gene-therapy programs in pipeline for two different types of Batten disease. It expects to release top-line results from the phase I/II study of the CLN6 Batten program in additional patients at two years following a one-time administration of its gene therapy in the third quarter of 2019, with more detail at a scientific congress later in the year. Amicus also expects to complete enrollment in the ongoing CLN3 Batten disease phase I/II study.
The company plans to establish preclinical proof of concept for Fabry and Pompe gene therapies in 2019.
For full-year 2019, the company expects total Galafold revenues of $160-$180 million. The upside is expected to be driven by continued growth in EU markets, further geographic expansion and success from the first full year of the drug’s launch in the United States and Japan. Consistent with Galafold’s adoption trends and ordering patterns seen in previous years, Amicus expects higher revenues in the second and fourth quarters of 2019.
The company expects to end 2019 with approximately $300 million of cash in hand. The current cash position is anticipated to be enough to fund ongoing operations til at least mid-2021.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -24.41% due to these changes.
At this time, Amicus Therapeutics has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Amicus Therapeutics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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