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Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK). The company's stock saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Autodesk’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
Is Autodesk still cheap?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 10.27% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Autodesk today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $291.21, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Autodesk’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
Can we expect growth from Autodesk?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a relatively muted profit growth of 9.0% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Autodesk, at least in the short term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in ADSK’s future outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on ADSK, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Autodesk at this point in time. For example - Autodesk has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you are no longer interested in Autodesk, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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