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Why BPER Banca S.p.A. (BIT:BPE) Could Be Worth Watching

Simply Wall St

BPER Banca S.p.A. (BIT:BPE), operating in the financial services industry based in Italy, saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the BIT. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on BPER Banca’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for BPER Banca

Is BPER Banca still cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 12% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy BPER Banca today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is €5.29, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that BPER Banca’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of BPER Banca look like?

BIT:BPE Past and Future Earnings, February 18th 2020

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of BPER Banca, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -8.7%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? BPE seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on BPE for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on BPE should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on BPER Banca. You can find everything you need to know about BPER Banca in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in BPER Banca, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.