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Why the Earnings Surprise Streak Could Continue for Fair Isaac (FICO)

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If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Fair Isaac (FICO). This company, which is in the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, shows potential for another earnings beat.

When looking at the last two reports, this financial services company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 28.05%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the most recent quarter, Fair Isaac was expected to post earnings of $2.44 per share, but it reported $2.74 per share instead, representing a surprise of 12.30%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $2.26 per share, while it actually produced $3.25 per share, a surprise of 43.81%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Fair Isaac. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Fair Isaac currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.94%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on May 5, 2021.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.


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