A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Jabil (JBL). Shares have added about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Jabil due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Jabil’s Q3 Results Benefit From Strong EMS Performance
Jabil reported third-quarter fiscal 2019 earnings of 57 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and rallied 23.9% year over year.
Revenues increased 12.8% year over year to $6.14 billion that outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6 billion.
Moreover, during the quarter, Jabil completed Wave 1 and Wave 2 phases related to the previously announced collaboration with Johnson & Johnson Medical Devices Companies (JJMDC).
Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) revenues accounted for 65% of total revenues and increased 26% year over year to $4 billion, driven by strength in cloud, point-of-sale, 5G and wireless, and industrial end markets.
Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS) revenues accounted for 37% of revenues and decreased 6% year over year to $2.1 billion, primarily due to weak demand for mobility, which is part of Mechanics and Edge Devices & Accessories end markets.
Gross margin on a GAAP basis contracted 10 basis points (bps) year over year to 7.2%.
Core EBITDA margin contracted 20 bps on a year-over-year basis to 6.1%.
Operating expenses on a GAAP basis declined 30 bps to 4.9%. While selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses shrank 20 bps to 4.5%, research & development (R&D) expenses as percentage of revenues were flat at 0.2%.
Non-GAAP core operating margin expanded 30 bps to 3%.
EMS core margin declined 100 bps on a year-over-year basis to 3.3%, primarily due to softness in the capital equipment space and costs associated with the ramping up of new business awards.
However, DMS core margin improved 130 bps on a year-over-year basis to 2.6%, driven by improved business mix well supported by Jabil’s diversification efforts.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
Jabil exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $694 million compared with $749.1 million in the previous quarter.
In the quarter, cash flow from operations was $5 million, while free cash outflow was $225 million.
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2019, Jabil expects total revenues between $6.3 billion and $6.9 billion. Revenues are expected to grow almost 14% year over year at mid-point.
DMS revenues are forecasted to be $2.5 billion, up roughly 4% year over year. EMS revenues are forecasted to be $4.1 billion, up nearly 22% year over year.
Core operating income is estimated to be $215-$275 million, with core operating margin of 3.4. The company’s core earnings are expected to be 76-96 cents per share on a non-GAAP basis.
For fiscal 2019, revenues are expected to be $25.3 billion. Core operating income is expected to be $875 million, up 14% year over year.
Adjusted free cash flow is expected around $400 million, up 60% year over year.
For DMS segment, revenues are expected to be $9.9 billion. Jabil expects core operating margin to be 3.9% and EBITDA of $890 million.
Further, EMS segment revenues are expected to be $15.4 million. The company expects core operating margin to be 3.2% and EBITDA of $760 million.
Moreover, for fiscal 2020, revenues associated with the J&J collaboration are expected between $800 million and $1 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -6.8% due to these changes.
At this time, Jabil has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Jabil has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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