While Macy's, Inc. (NYSE:M) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s examine Macy's’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
Is Macy's still cheap?
According to my valuation model, Macy's seems to be fairly priced at around 16% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Macy's today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $7.47, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Macy's’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Macy's?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Macy's, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -0.4%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Currently, M appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on M for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on M should the price fluctuate below its true value.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is significant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Macy's.
If you are no longer interested in Macy's, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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