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Why Is McDonald's (MCD) Up 0.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

Zacks Equity Research

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for McDonald's (MCD). Shares have added about 0.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is McDonald's due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

McDonald's Q2 Earnings Miss, Revenues Beat Estimates

McDonald's reported mixed second-quarter 2019 results, wherein earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues beat the same. Following the quarterly results, shares of the company gained 2.6% during the pre-market trading session.

Adjusted earnings came in at $2.05 per share, which missed the consensus mark by a penny. However, the metric witnessed a gain of 3% from the prior-year quarter number. Meanwhile, foreign currency translation had a negative impact of 7 cents per share on earnings in the quarter under review.

Revenues Decline But Global Comps Improve

In the second quarter, revenues of $5,341.3 million outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,335 million but decreased 0.2% year over year. This downturn reflects the impact of the company’s strategic refranchising initiatives. However, on a constant-currency basis, the metric increased 3% on a year-over-year basis.

At company-operated restaurants, revenues decreased 7% year over year to $2,400.4 million. However, the same at franchise-operated restaurants improved 7% to $2,940.9 million.

Global comps grew 6.5% driven by positive comparable sales across all segments. Notably, this marked the sixteenth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales. In the first quarter of 2019, comps were up 4.5%.

Solid Comps Across Segments

U.S.: Comps at this segment grew 5.7% in the second quarter, higher than a 4.5% rise in the prior quarter. This uptick was driven by successful national and local deal offerings, which includes the 2 for $5 Mix as well as Match deal. Deployment of Experience of the Future and strength in our core menu items also drove the segment’s comps.

Segment operating income rose 5% due to the inclusion of strategic restructuring charges in the year-ago quarter. Excluding the charges, operating income declined 3% due to lesser gains on sales of restaurant businesses.

International Operated Markets: Comps at this segment rose 6.6% year over year, higher than a 6% rise registered in the last reported quarter. Robust sales in the U.K., France, Germany and positive results across all markets drove comps.

Operating income increased 3% year over year, including the impact of foreign currency translation. At constant currency, the figure increased 8%. This upside can be attributed to McDonald's sales-driven improvements in franchised margin dollars.

International Developmental Licensed Segment: The segment’s comparable sales increased 7.9% during the second quarter owing to robust sales performance across all geographic regions. In the preceding quarter, the segment’s comps rose 6%.

Other Information

McDonald's returned $2 billion to its shareholders via stock repurchase and dividends. In 2019, the company expects to return nearly $9 billion to its shareholders.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, McDonald's has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

McDonald's has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.



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