Why this might be 2014's most pivotal week for financial releases (Part 1 of 7)
A pivotal week
Financial markets will train their sights on the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) meeting, slated for April 29–30, in what may be one of the year’s most pivotal weeks. While the FOMC should produce little in the way of data surprises, the GDP and employment data releases as well as the forward guidance from the FOMC statement should provide market watchers something to mull over in the coming weeks.
Brace for an interesting April 30: It’s Super Wednesday
Wednesday, April 30, is expected to pull quite a punch with both the FOMC meeting announcement and advance gross domestic product (or GDP) estimates for the first quarter of 2014 slated for release. The Fed is widely expected to cut its asset purchases at the current “measured pace” by $10 billion per month to $45 billion per month.
The GDP estimate should prove more interesting, with both stock (VOO) and bond (BND) markets divided as to the exact impact of an unusually severe winter on the nation’s economic activity. The first quarter GDP number should provide more clarity.
It’s that time of the year…
Many publicly listed companies will also be declaring results for the first quarter of 2014. Major companies declaring results this week include Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP) on April 28, the Carlyle Group (CG) on April 30, and Archer-Daniels (ADM), Boston Scientific (BSX), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) on April 29. These companies, with the exception of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP), are S&P 500 Index (VOO) components.
Other major releases this week
- Pending home sales on Monday, April 28
- The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (or TMOS), also due on Monday, April 28
- Tuesday, April 29, will see the Fed’s FOMC begin
- The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index will also release on Tuesday, April 29
- Consumer confidence estimates from both the Conference Board and State Street will also release on Tuesday, April 29
- Another important consumer confidence bellwether, auto sales for April, will release on Thursday, May 1
- Retail indices, namely the Johnson Redbook and the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Same Store Sales indices, are due to release on Tuesday, April 29
- Employment, manufacturing, and construction releases will set the pace from Wednesday to Friday, capping the week with the all-important non-farm payrolls number releasing on Friday, May 2
- Factory orders will also be released on Friday
- The Chicago, Markit, and Institute of Supply Management’s PMI numbers for March will release this week, with Chicago releasing on Wednesday and the latter two releasing on Thursday
- Other releases this week include MBA Purchase Applications, the ADP Employment Report, the Employment Cost Index, and farm prices, which will all come out on Wednesday
- On Thursday, other releases include initial jobless claims, Gallup Payroll-to-Population, Challenger Job Cuts, personal income and outlays, construction spending, and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
In this series, we’ll cover some of the major releases due between Monday and Wednesday. Market Realist will publish a separate series covering more indicators on Tuesday.
To read about the preview to the Fed’s FOMC meeting due on April 29–30, please continue to Part 2 of this series.
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